Arena Season 7

[Angry Johnny]

Corner case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_case

[datguygamer]

@dallasreds How often do you encounter teams with the Cheater set? What’s your team structure?

[Dallasreds]

OK corner cases is a real phrase but the pessimist in me says they pull these phrases out of you know where.

[Pointless]

@jim151 the retaliation post-attack has always been there. Cannoneer’s Counter and Marksmen’s Ambush has always caused this, even when the Banner is down. Thing is, you rarely see these Classes used in Arena, plus we haven’t had retaliation linked to a Set before. Of note is this will actually cause a loss if the counter attacks knock down your Banner, even if the enemy’s has previously been KOd.

[angryde]

@dallasreds You’re not serious!?! I’m fascinated :-D What was my team/set(s) composition(s)… just out of interest!! Hey, and I’m sure you could have taken me down!! ;-)

[Napoleongl]

Decided to some testing of the coin flipping and while doing so had the funniest battle ever against chucks new set. He was accompanied by samurai and spies and I managed to keep thunderbirds shield up every time he died! It looked like a collective suicide (spelling?!) let me tell you! Probably had the opponents kill themselves four or five times each before their 31k (!) banner went down!
Will get back with the result of the test when I get to 50ish battles!

[Suzy]

@angryjohnny thanks for the info.

[Dallasreds]

@angryde
Should have written it down. Only thing I remember is the Rez banner. I will next time. I rarely have seen a friend in the last few months.

@datguygamer
Here are 3 days of using Dice set w ESkulkers
Coin tosses
Wins 24 Losses 40 Reverses 15 opponents using Dice set 4

After objectives I use Valiant banner vengeance or red emblem, Wiz/Phoenix ESeadog/Scissor or Gladiator and Eskulkers for fun.

[datguygamer]

Wanted to try out a strategy similar to @dallasreds (thanks for that) while mixing headgears suggested by @smwforever45 and @angryde earlier with the new set and while doing that found a new (old?) bug. If you can manage upon a situation where all birds from both teams are knocked out, the game crashes.

Also, for the first time after updating, I got that “Epic needs to restart to stay Epic” message which I never got up until v1.4.6. I tapped the tick mark and it…wiped my entire save. Logging back out and in didn’t work. Copying my backup file didn’t work as it kept saying it’s a “crashed save”…

[RedYoshi45]

@datguygamer
You should’ve listened to what everyone has said here… When the Epic message appears, just restart the game… Don’t tap the message.
Now, the only thing you can do is to contact Rovio…

I have managed to have both teams knocked out at the same time. What happens then is that my game skips turns until one bird is alive again. No crashes for me.

[KennyMcC]

Do u like Shroud Emblem :)? Yeah I like it very much when it negates 3 of my attacks in row :D Yeah 3 in row, it has chance 1:1000 to happen :D and this happened to me at least twice during last month. Dont tell me that I have/had only bad luck :DDD Shroud emblem 10%? I doubt that :)

[Napoleongl]

Test over…
57 battles all with the same team (dragon EPaladin, lightning EThunderbird, sweet Witch) after completing objectives. Proportion of won tosses are 0.31 +/- 0.13 or 0.18<p<0.44 at 95% confidence (+/- 0.17 at 99% sign).
In other words; yes the proportion of win/loss is less than 50% even after the corner cases.
Should be noted I did win way more tosses against teams with a lower power than mine but I have too few observations to prove that there is a significant difference.
Will do another test tomorrow if I’m still bored.

[Pointless]

@napoleongl that theory is certainly one to which some of us presribe. I don’t think any real numbers have been reported here, but it has been noted that a higher APR often results in more wins.
On that note, I do seem to be winning more often now (although not sure it is quite 50/50). Perhaps I will start again on these numbers.

[Dallasreds]

@napoleongl
Thanks for the info. You get extra credit for including 95% CL !
Getting an opponent w lower rating has been 1 in 10 for me. They almost always are several hundred above me.

[Napoleongl]

@pointless
Haven’t seen any numbers recently and since there were some “corner cases fixed I decided to test it…

@dallasreds
Doing my first year in applied statistics so I’d be damned if I didn’t :-)
Next up will be to test the TJ, just have to get time and a good way to log it. Mental record keeping sucks but points to the chance being way higher than 1/10 for both me and the enemies.

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
If you doubt these percentages so much why don’t you just do some actual tests to verify? :|
BTW, Shroud triggers 15% of the time, not 10%.
And again, I can only confirm that it is very well 15%. Sorry to say you had bad luck indeed… Sometimes I get 10 attacks through and it doesn’t proc a single time, sometimes it prevents two or three attacks in a row.

One single emblem where I think percentages are wrong, is Magnetism.
It says 25%, but on both my side and the enemy’s side, it’s probably more than that.

Also, since the update, Valiant seems to be less effective on my side while it almost always procs on the enemy… Might have to do some testing to verify.

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45 Yeah 15% :) But that changes nothing :) U said, it sometimes prevents 3 attacks in row. What is sometimes? If it is something like once per 100 attacks to this Shroud emblem, this could be like once per month (or more) for daily player, right? If this is true, there is something wrong about 15% on this emblem.

I dont trust any % in this game.

[Pointless]

A chance to proc is a chance to proc. It does not mean simply X% of the time it will activate. I use Chrono almost exclusively, despite many deriding it based on “only” 10%. Why? If I am using Power Team, one single proc in the first two turns means a certain win. I have had battles where are three Birds get an extra attack in the first turn. The norm? Nowhere near, yet statitically plausible. I don’t count on it, as there are equally many battles without a single proc, but I find in a game so heavily dependent in RNG, why not simply go with it?

[Atom]

I use Chrono pretty much exclusively too and there are battles where it never procs and battles where my birds get extra turns almost every turn. I’m sure if I paid attention and kept track it would probably work out to what it is supposed to.

Also had my least favorite objective today: Win 3 arena battles and knock out 10 birds per battle!

[angryde]

@kennymcc Hey, you must never discount the effective and/or affective potency of observer bias. Sure, I’ve had moments where I’m absolutely convinced that the percentages are rigged… however, when one examines proc-rates with a cool head, one is forced to concede that they’re pretty much on-point. That’s the problem with approaching probabilities commonsensically, as it were… everyday expectations are very often confounded :-P Bloody math!!

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
Gimme statistics or your argument is invalid. :-P

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45 I gave u :) What u want more :)

@pointless

@angryde
Lets have for example coin with 0 on one side and 1 on the other side. It means u have 50% the get 0 or 1 when u make random toss. If u have results (or similar results with often weird sub-results) like: 1111111000000000111111111111111111000000000000000000011111111111111100000000001111111111000000000000, it is NOT random 50%. That is pseudo-random 50%!
So Shroud (and other % in this) can be maybe in many examples 15% but it is NOT random 15% as it should be, it is far more pseudo-random sh*t :)
Thats why I dont undestand that, because it so so so easy to make random that is almost perfect random, or the programmer are so stupid or what? Or it has some higher purpose that I dont understand :D

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
What you gave isn’t a valid statistic. All you gave were mere thoughts and one-time notices.
Do 25 arena battles against Shroud emblems, or use Shroud yourself, and count how many times it actually triggers and how many times it doesn’t. You’ll end up at 15%. It MAY be pseudo-random but the percentage is correct. Nobody ever said percentages were random.

Oh and about your point with the coin tosses. My tosses are more like 00000110000100110000 right now.

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45 :) If u do % somewhere u logically talk about random results and everyone (or most people) expect that. If anybody creates pseudo-random % it should have good reason and the reason should be told. If not, there is something wrong – it is like cheating.

I was not talking about coin toss in this game :) We all know that it is not even 50% even pseudo-random right now :) Oh sorry dear Rovio :) it can be pseudo-random because u can make these coin tosses to drop in opposite way in following months and reach 50% in long period of time :D Yeah I like these Rovio % very much :D If u cant program such easy thing, better dont do it ;)

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
Apparently it doesn’t matter to Rovio. Random or pseudo-random. You’ll end up at a certain percentage either way. :P