Arena Season 7

[Pointless]

@kennymcc I don’t think there’s anyone here who believes the toss has ever been truly random. We are all seeing far more losses than wins, but a few updates ago, we had the opposite success rate. I don’t think anyone complained about that…a salivating feast for my Power Team :)

My point being, you are not comparing apples to apples. Proc rate for Emblems and Sets is far more random (truly random) than the toss. You cannot expect, nor will you observe, an outcome of X% based on simple observation or a small sample of data. Check your numbers over several hundred or thousands of runs (like we have done) and then tell us the numbers are skewed.

[Pointless]

@smwforever45 your alter-ego and myself are locked in a fierce battle for first.

[Dallasreds]

I didn’t do so hot in uh-rena today. I mainly skipped Foes w Mana and foes 400 or 500 above me. I didn’t complete the third objective so have fallen to # 6 in Platinum (sobbing quietly).

Using Blues Cheater set for the fun of it cost me some but here are the coin tosses today:
Wins 1
Losses 9
Reverses 5 by Blue
No opponent using Cheater set
Yippee!

@pointless
What are the odds of you having another Yoshi on your board. It’s small world after all.

[Pointless]

@dallasreds I know…thought that it would have been the end of the vermin. We all know Wario is the be all end all…

[RedYoshi45]

@pointless
That’s my neighbour and best friend, he’s been working darn hard to make it into Diamond and he’d be quite happy to win :P

(Btw my current score would be somewhere between 3rd and 4th place on your board; meanwhile, I’m on #7 on my own)

[angryde]

OK… my board remains a cake-walk… I am wondering when the other shoe is going to drop…

[KennyMcC]

@pointless
Sorry u r wrong :) If u recieve few examples (2-5 for example) of extremely rare result (like 0,3% or even lower) in quite short period (like in 10-20 runs), thats enough to tell that there is something wrong with very high probability. Ofcourse for like 10%-50% u need alot of more data, I am ok with that. And no, proc rate of emblems is not true random in my opinion :)

[Pointless]

A few rare results prove absolutely nothing. There is always a probability of these occurring, so unless you have a huge pool of data, stating anything as conclusive is erroneous.

[Dave]

Guys what is the best way to get the resurrection thing. I think its really good. In which league can you get it? Is it on the wheel in dimond league? Bc its not in platin :/

[KennyMcC]

@pointless
Sorry dude, but I cannot agree with u (there is always probability that 0,000000000001% will proc milion times in row :D ). BTW when u talk about % there is nothing absolute even if u make few of runs or billions of runs :) Only 0% or 100% is absolute :) I see your point :) u want to work with results with high probability. I want the same, but we have a little different perspective on that :)

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
Have you ever heard of the Law of Large Numbers? If you do a lot of runs (1000+) the percentage will always approach an absolute value. It’s like if you toss a dice. You may get 3 6’s at first, but if you toss 2000 dices you’ll get a 6 1 out of 6 times on average. That is exactly what I have been asking you for. If there was something wrong with the percentage then a long-term experiment would never approach this percentage. @pointless’s point is completely right and if you say something else you’re questioning science.

@seraphion
Resurrection definitely appears on Platinum and above… You may have just been unlucky. (like me :/)

[Jenn]

Know what would’ve been WAY cooler? If they’d left the coin toss alone and instead made the cheater set affect prize wheel :/

[datguygamer]

@jennt That does sound good.

[Jenn]

Extra points too, maybe? :D

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45
I faced Shroud emblem in arena few minutes ago. The next one right after the last one where I had 3 shrouded attacks in row (and I dont count howmany times my attacks were shrouded during this month :D ). And now I made 12 attacks (8 went directly into banner) in this battle and 5 of them were shrouded :DDDD Yeah briliant 15% :DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD Please tell me that I have ONLY bad luck :DDDDDDD Oh please dont make me laugh :DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD I dont need to make special runs against Shroud Emblem, those I met during arena battles are enough for me to see what is going on there :) Sorry but I dont remember my last battle versus Shroud emblem where I was not shrouded, maybe because it wasnt in this year :D

Oh yeah u can have large number of runs that can have average 50% but this does not mean it is regular random of 50%. Sorry boys, but u will never convince me about regular randoms in this game :) this is only some kind of bull-sh*t :)

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
Please. STOP with the “oh I saw that phenomenon a few times, so it must be the rule” stuff. It’s ticking me off right now as a statistical nerd I am. I told you about the Law of Large Numbers; I never said that the game had normal randomness (I think we can all agree the game is rigged, starting at but not restricted to the coin toss issues) but percentages WILL even out to some sort of value in the long run. If you faced a hundred Shroud emblems and you saw more than 15% proccing over all these 100 battles we can talk again. Because then something is definitely wrong. One or two runs do not help.

Yoshi out.

[Atom]

@kennymcc @smwforever45 All I really have to say is that it is a game. If it is going to give you fits of rage then maybe you should not play. I understand that it can be frustrating to see things go against you or proc more than you think they should but at the end of the day you can always walk away. I have fun looking at the numbers but really I just play the game for fun. Sure we can all get obsessed over thing sometimes but really you shouldn’t let them get you so upset.

[Pointless]

Exactly @atom , if you believe you are being “cheated” in some sense, then why are you playing the game?

[KennyMcC]

@atom
Right, I dont like playing arena for many reasons :) If there will not be any shards reward in arena, I dont play it :)

[RedYoshi45]

Likely going to finish the week in 5th or 6th place. Fair enough…

@pointless
How’s the Yoshi on your board faring?

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45 It seems that I am going to finish in 2nd place this week :) 435 points behind the 1st and 6265 from 4th right now. There is no point for me to be 1st, 3 stars are enough satisfaction for me :)

U couldnt reach 3rd place?

[Pointless]

@smwforever45 your sibling will finish first by a very comfortable margin. He/she spent most of a day grinding over 25K just after I posted the previous pic. Considering I am almost 18K up over third, it really wasn’t worth my time to try and keep pace. I took second and am happy about that.

[RedYoshi45]

@kennymcc
Grinders were too insane in my league.

@pointless
2nd is fair enough, I’m happy this fellow Yoshi came in 1st :)

[pixelyzed]

Just made it to Diamond for only the second time ever and completed my first day objectives with no losses. Will now try to grind a bit to gather points.

This group seems more balanced than last season which was my first time in Diamond. I started first day then without being able to complete the third (3000) points obective and was never able to make up that deficit. This time, the odds seem more fair so far.

Got through with my trusty team of Elite Paladin, Witch and Elite SeaDong… Also, having the Resurection emblem again makes a HUGE difference!

[KennyMcC]

@smwforever45
I finished 2nd with 48655 points. I usually start playing new week after like 17 hours from the end of the last week. I have good experience with that :) It seems that most “grinders” start new week only few hours from the end of the last week :)