4 years, 6 months agoAngry Turd@adolftrump
I’m curious about whether the tower of fortune puts the pig in completely random places or if it learns over time from your individual choices and uses an algorithm to predict where it thinks you are more likely to pick. Anyone know about this?
There is some kind of algorithm that controls it.
The only question is how much does that algorithm randomize the outcome.Apprentice@apprentice
My conclusion is that algorithm allows you 1 or 2 times in one month to cilmb up to level 30, seeing piggie only two to three times. Other times don’t even bother… Unless you have load of gems. Once in 1,5 years I’ve reached level 47 with 800 gems. There is nothing random about ToF!RawDataSystems@rawdatasystems
Personally I find it hard to belie that Rovio would spend any amount of time to even attempt such algorithm, because odds are already so heavily against player. Someone smarter could show the math…
IMHO, most likely the game just “places” the cards by RNG after player has picked a card.
About empirical “feel” that game somehow learns how you play? Well… we are hard wired to find patterns; Even when there are none.
I collected ToF data from November 2017 to February 2018 and it shows significant and often consistent variations…
– odds of advancing are better in Hat event weeks
– overall odds of hitting pig @ level 2 not consistent with expected (0.25). Generally higher
– another poster here went to 90 (at the time) and reported 40% odds of pig before 5, 10, 15, etc floors. Should be 25%
– entertaining observations such as – hit pig, watch video, hit pig immediately seem to be happening too often
– pig-storms (3 pigs in 4 or 5 picks) around 25-30 floor.
There were weeks where I could not get past floor 2 or 3 whole week without a pig. This event I’ve made it to 30 twice, 25 and 20 several times, and the lowest with 2 pigs has been 15.
I’ve wasted enough tuition in probability and statistics courses to know it ain’t random.RIP Piggies@rippiggies
I reckon that there is a tree of probabilities – it doesn’t matter what card you pick, but at turn n there’s a y% chance (whichever you’ve picked) that there’s the pig. The average y% is probably close to 25%. This makes by far the most sense, as it is quite easy to programme AND to adjust every now and again – e.g. special events etc. I don’t buy the conspiracy BS that it “learns” your ways. Those sorts of algorithms are hard, and just how many users do you think that piece of machine learning has got its procedures for?!? Statistically, you EXPECT to see clusters and clumps – e.g. every few months a great lucky run, or 3 days in a row where you select three pigs in a row. That’s how random works.Pomme@pomme
I think they hate me. I have never gotten to the 15th floor without a pig. I rarely get 5 without a pig. 95% of the time I get a pig on the second or third card. Plus, by the 7th or 8th card, I’ve had 3. I don’t even care anymore. After many years, I’ve just about broken the habit. Will be thankful to never play again. There is no skill involved. It’s no longer any fun.
ETA: I just played again and performed an experiment. By the time I got to 23, I was up to 1,600 gems, which I played, then logged out. I kept playing because I was stupid enough to think surely, I won’t keep getting them. But no. I got 4 pigs in a row. FOUR. Rovio is cheating scum. There is no other explanation. I’m done.
Machine learning is a lot easier than you think. A LOT. as it’s done on the server side.
A few patterns have been identified, and lets not forget the Hat Event Leniency… during early days of such events you can make it to 20-25 without anything more than a pig or two. Consistently.
A common occurence at that time is a pig storm, which is basically after you get past 20-25 you run into 3 pigs in 4 or 5 cards…
Or, hit pig, use video, the next card seems to have higher chance of pig unless you paid the 20 rubies.Corvus Rex@mbittenbender
I’ve made it to floor 30 three times but have had to pay gems at least once to get there. I just look for patterns and the best I’ve come up with so far is this:
1) You need to watch where the pig ends up in the first hand you see him. He generally will be in the same place 33-50% of the time, but you can just as easily make another random pick.
2) Make that 2nd pick and hope it’s not another pig. Sorry, that’s the best I got on that, but it’ll cost you just 20 gems to get back in. Note where he is again.
3) Now, recall the place of the FIRST in step 1 above and pick it. Then pick the card placement on step 2 above and so on.
To summarise, don’t pick the last card where the pig was but the card before that. They like to double up on pig placement a lot, but rarely 3 times in a row (still happens on occasion).
It ain’t perfect, but it gives me some success. There are definitely some days when it seems like I’m “in the zone” and can’t fail, but there has to be more to it then my picks. 25% randomness over 30 floors usually catches up to the best of us in about 8 picks or so.
But now that we all talked about what we found BET that they don’t change it at some point if players show more success. They rely only us to want to buy gems to get these prizes so they’ll invest in their profit generating activities.Krena@krena
Your picks have nothing to do with anything. Rovio’s game programming calculates what reward you will get based on several factors including how committed you are. If you play a lot and pay for continues you will get harder levels and fewer rewards. The game then awards you that prize regardless of what card you pick. I have a copy of a message from a developer saying just that – they figured out how to display the card in such a way that it looks like you picked it, meaning they display the reward you are to be given on the face of the card you picked.
I’ve had decent success (i.e. level 15 with 1 pig, 20 with 2) following a similar strategy. 1st pick random, 2nd pick random, then 3, 4, etc if you didn’t hit a pig, pick the card the pig was.
Problems: Not sure this is reset after hat floors (5, 10, 15…). It usually works. Also, as @mbittenbende indicated, it’s not unusual to hit 3 in a row after 20-25. It’s common to hit 2 in a row then.
Guaranteed to hit 2 in a row? pig, select free video then pig again more so than 1 in 4 that it should be.
Yet @krena brings up a good point regarding randomness (or lack thereof). There definitely is a ‘penalty’ for paying for continues (aka pig storms).IHateThisName@ihatethisname
Well, you could try and datamine, or do something that gets you the source code of the Tower of Misfortune. That way you find the formula and get your lost gems back. I mean, it is partially cheating, but we aren’t actively interfering with the game, just learning something outside of it. I’d definitely like my 5000 or so gems back from it.davidGdavidGr@davidgr
– first 4 months of playing i had a simple rule: not to spend gems in TOF. i used to get to level 10-15 on daily basis without seeing 1 pig.
– after 4 months of playing i started to use gems and my chances decreased immediately.
– after 1 time, the only time i used money in the game was to buy gems when i reached level 40 and i hated to lose all it was obvious that my chances was further decreased… now i can’t get to level 5 without a pig…IHateThisName@ihatethisname
I tried the fast forward button, and it got me pretty far. Round 30, and I even made a profit from the ToF, a rarity.007@nas76
Statistically speaking you are likely to get a pig on level 2 every 4 days, and so about 2 every week. If it happens 3 times in any given week then that wouldn’t be a high improbability.
Once in every 16 days you will be likely to get a pig on levels 2 and 3, I guess this happens to me. Bearing in mind that each level there is a 25% chance of getting a pig you are statistically rarely going to get very far if you decide that you will always ditch out after 2 or 3 pigs.
I doubt that there is an algorithm.
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