Tower of Fortune odds

[cognitive]

I am amazed to see how predictable ToF has become. The below scenario accounts for nearly one in two runs:

1 – useless spell or 1 feather (!)
2 – 1 or 2 more feathers
3 – pig!

I have not hit gems in the first two rounds, and of course there are no pigs there (thanks). Round 3 is either a pig or something useless, 4 is most always a pig, etc.

You may be at level 15 before you have anything worthwhile like 30-40 pearls. To get to 15 or 20 you will likely encounter pigs at 20, 50, 100, and even 200 so you’ll reach 15-20 by meeting 4 pigs and spending 370 gems. If you’re lucky you may collect 100-200 by then.

I can understand the odds before 5’s and 10’s levels. But feather, feather, pig is getting old.

Topic

[DJLarryt]

Unless this is yet another example of Rovio giving different players different game experiences (see my post in the ‘update’ thread), there ARE pigs on the second floor.

And try getting a pig on Floor #2 5 out of 7 days, which is what I’ve consistently had since the upgrade (because I open it to get the daily gem bonus and have been keeping track). The other two days I’ll infallibly get the pig before Floor #5 as you mentioned above.

Sorry Rovio, not paying 20 gems for a spell or a single feather, and definitely will NEVER bother to work up to higher stages in this scam.

[CaptSternn]

I get the same, DJ, pig on 2nd floor every time after getting 2 feathers or something on the 1st floor. Basement just goes away as soon as I open the tower.

[jo-ha]

Yes, they eliminated the Basement. But you start on the first Floor that has no pig.

I can also safely say, that most of the time I get a pig before the first pearls.

…but since I have enough black pearls to backup all the hats, if you know what I mean, I only go for feathers, so I’m fine.

[Epic Buttstomp]

The odd is bad against the players. Too many garbage items at lower level to give me an incentives to push on. Token amount of feathers and spells (as if we need more). You will be lucky to break even for the 20 + 50 continue payments.

If I make 20+ gems and see a pig already, time to cash out and leave.

[$miglo]

Sometimes I also get 2 pigs before 5th floor… But I’ve been on 30th floor twice (paid 20+50) in the meantime :) It’s just luck.

[cognitive]

Rovio would have us believe the odds are 1 in 4 for any card to be anything. I have wasted many decades of my life playing video games and similar decades taking advanced probability and similar classes. This ain’t 1 in 4 odds by a long stretch.

If anyone has collected data on ToF I would greatly appreciate sharing. Specifically, a spreadsheet with 5 columns – 1 thru 4 are the four cards, and 5th column is user choice. I’m curious to see if the results match.

The feathers/feathers/pig combination that seems to be prevalent has a probability of occurrence which is a LOT lower than what I’m seeing.

Another rare occurrence is that of getting any gems the first 2-3 rounds. VERY rare.

[Yue]

@cognitive

I used to keep record of TOF for 3 days and then give it up. Simply because it’s random.

[angrynerds2]

Sometimes I win a lot of gems and spells and the other day I find that stupid pig on the second floor!
When I find the pigs early I give it up paying 20 gems.

[CaptSternn]

I had kept a record of the tower for a while, Cognitive, when pigs appeared, how many feathers and gems I got and how far up I could go before running out of gems. I tried patterns, chasing certain cards like always hitting the one that had a pig or spell the previous try, tried staying with one card, and it was always almost exactly the same results.

Now I just use the far left card over and over, don’t even bother trying to figure it out. It isn’t random and it isn’t luck, the results are predetermined. What aggravates me the most is that when I do get to the top, I will usually get a hat I already have. In fact, when the cards are revealed, they are all hats I already have and I can’t complete a set. Not that it really matters as far as game play in the arena because I don’t see any advantages. I win and lose as many rounds as ever.

[bigbadaboom]

@cognitive

I only care about pig distribution but 1 in 4 seems about right. I had 3-in-a-row pig on 2nd floor last week. That’s a 1.6% chance. Unlucky, but not unreasonable. And yesterday i made it to round 66 with the strategy i posted earlier with a profit of 1k gems, 15k feathers and a bunch of other stuff. Lucky, but not unreasonable.

[cognitive]

As I said, 1 in 4 is the expected odds, but from personal experience I hit rubies in rounds 1 and 2 not even 1 in 10, and the feather / feather / pig odds seem to not match reality by any stretch of the imagination.

I’ve made it to 30 several times and to 45 and only have 2 useful hats off those. Other times it was always hats I have.

Right now a good day is to spend 0-50 rubies if I can get 30-40 pearls and a few hundred feathers. Stop at level 11-16. The expected return simply is not worth it unless you have Fort Knox amounts of rubies.

[Ave]

What is the best, fastest way to build a large stockpile of pearls? Googling the question led nowhere. I can’t even fathom how long it will take me to save enough pearls to get my next set of matching hats now that I have completed cowboy set. Also, why are the cowboy hats too pearls when all the other x3 multiplier hats are 1000? Any difference other than price?

Thanks

[Ave]

Care to repost your strategy? So far my only strategy is pick a card other than the one I want to choose. lol

[DJLarryt]

On par with @captsternn: I also did testing of a similar nature and found the game results are predetermined. Restarted several daily saved games from different points and got the same result every time no matter what card I picked, 100% of attempts. That was enough for me to conclude the ToF is NOT random.

For example, today I got the pig card on the second floor. AGAIN. After winning one feather. Funny how often that happens, I get this result 5/7 days per week.

[Yue]

I used to use Excel’s random function to list down 1-90 floors’s choice and follow it exactly. The winning percentage is around 60%. I used to sellect the right one card no matter what happened, the winning rate is still around 60%. As we don’t know what algorithm Rovio’s design is, it’s hard to say 100% random or not. Well, play TOF or been played, it’s our choice.

[DJLarryt]

3rd day in a row- 2nd floor pig after winning 2 feathers on stage 1 (first stage).

The only day so far this week (starting on Sunday) was Monday where I managed to get to Floor #5 and quit with my rewards before even attempting Floor #6 (why bother, really). Every other day was a pig card on Floor #2. Hardly worth the time to play it- the 8 gem reward for trying is more than I ever get on the actual ToF activity, LOL

[Jim151]

Had a good day in the tower. 30 pearls, 6 spells, 100 feathers, and it cost me a net 19 gems. Got 2 pigs (-70) and picked up 51. Best day in a while.

But it’s usually pretty lousy. Last 3-4 days I’ve quit after 2-3 levels. I don’t know how they expect people to pay to continue after getting 2 feathers or a blizzard and then a pig on level 2.

[Jon S]

@elliecakes

Hi Elie, I believe I told you this before in the “Questions on hats” thread that you started a couple of weeks ago. For a big stash on pearls:

1) Complete Daily Challenge (DC) and King pig Panic (KPP)…EVERY single day for a total of 30+100 =130 pearls. Doing this all week nabs you 130 pearls x 7 days = 910 pearls.

2) The arena, if you want pearls badly, you need to place in the top 3 or aim for 4th. Arena is fierce and you NEED to devote at least a few hours a day on this. 4th place gets you 150 pearls

In one week, if you beat DC and KPP and place 4th in the arena you get 1060 pearls. That’s enough to buy one 3x hat, and you rinse and repeat for the others.

I’ve been placing first in the arena consistently and beating DC/KPP everyday which gives me 1210 pearls. I’ve been doing this for months and I racked up 12,350 pearls, and I expect to get 25,000 in 12 weeks.

3) You can stash up on pearls on ToF, but DO NOT recommend it, as it eats your gems faster than you can say what happened. The furthest I’m willing to get without spending a truckload of gems is floor 15, where I get 40 pearls (that’s IF I don’t encounter the 3rd pig)

[cognitive]

Win KPP daily? Not difficult but time is a bit of a constraint..

[Jon S]

@cognitive, I usually complete KPP in about 15 minutes, and I bring spells to level 2-4 on KPP. Lately the boss levels are predictable with today’s KPP’s boss room being repeated a lot in early February. I always have see the videos of the boss rooms, to maximize my birds

[Jim151]

I’ve been placing first in the arena consistently and beating DC/KPP everyday which gives me 1210 pearls. I’ve been doing this for months and I racked up 12,350 pearls, and I expect to get 25,000 in 12 weeks.

I have the updated treasure chests, and get on average about 60 pearls a day from the free chests, occasionally up to 100. The red chests from the arena, challenges, and upgrading your star ranking frequently have 40, occasionally 100, and I once got a 1000 pearl hat.

I don’t compete in the arena. I play to get the rewards, but I don’t work hard to get top rankings, and I rarely do KPP, but I still average about 120 pearls a day. I’ve gotten 80 so far today, 30 from the DC and 50 from the free chests.

[CaptSternn]

Hit the 3,200 gem pig before level 20 today. No way I am making it to the top. I am taking my six feathers and eight gems for playing and going home.

[FlingerPro]

After hitting a pig at round 3(what a surprise!), I decided that the tower of MISfortune was too much. I’m just better without it, and I recommend everyone else to hold off(or rarely use) this gem killer.

[PolarBearCabal]

When I started playing, I had pretty decent luck. I’d usually make it to 10 with only paying 20 gems. Then one day I made it to 30. I had to pay 3 times, but I’d been incredibly lucky and hit a lot of gems on the way up.

For the last six days, it’s been a pig on the 3rd. I never pay to continue in those cases. It ends up netting me a (small) profit regardless because of the daily challenge.

[Putte]

And what about the odds to get all the hats? When you reach the top (90) theres 1 to 21 to get what you want. And when you miss 4 of them it will take some effort to get them…