Arena's Golden Pig

[freeman]

Does anyone has any idea of what the chances to get Arena Epic items are? And during that Golden Pig “happy hour” (in fact, just 15 minutes…)?
I’m asking because I just passed the frustrating experience of spending 75 LC during the said 15 minutes of (supposed…) increase chances and didn’t get any premium item. 15 tries just gave me the usual (stone) assets…

Topic

[Alandrixx]

I don’t thing they are linked together in those 15 min of “happy hour” but I think they should be. Because there is no other way to get Arena Golden Pig to give higher chance for epic items drops ( as far as I know ).

[KillerKea]

The 15 minutes for rainbow riot applies to both golden pigs. The rainbows on both are separate. The way you get a higher chance is to fill the rainbow so you have a 100% chance to get an epic item.

[freeman]

@killerKea How do you know it applies? Are you guessing or do you have specific data?
And about your joke that the best way to get set items is to fill the bar I don’t find it funny. Some have cash to buy LC at will but others don’t.

[dr_ishmael]

@jorge-freeman-1 You can see the AGPM “dancing” the same as the normal GPM during RR.

[freeman]

@dr_ishmael Yes, it does. That’s how he cheated me!

[KillerKea]

@jorge-freeman-1 I’m trusting what I see on screen. Your screen clearly shows Rainbow Riot on both pigs after collecting LC from to golden pig on the 7th day. The description of Rainbow Riot the game gives you is that it triples your chance of getting a set item.

I wasn’t making a joke. I was stating a fact that the only way to increase your chances besides Rainbow Riot is to fill your rainbow which guarantees you a set item. I don’t use Facebook so I’m at a much greater disadvantage than you.

[freeman]

@KillerKea You are right on what we both see. In fact, the GP dances, etc. Unfortunately appearances doesn’t mean results. By my experience it appears the rainbow riot effect doesn’t work on the Arena GP. To sustain this statement of mine I have the experience of 15 tries in a row without winning any of the expected set items.
Although, above, you totally dismiss my point and state The 15 minutes for rainbow riot applies to both golden pigs. What I ask then is how are you so sure? Do you have any data that contradicts mine? And your answer is “it looks like…” I’m sorry but that’s not enough to support your dismissing of my assumption. I continue to state that the rainbow riot didn’t work for me last week.

Sorry if I misunderstood you when I thought you were joking.

[KillerKea]

I haven’t done any spins on the arena pig since I think it is a waste of LC because items there only affect the arena and better items are available in the higher leagues. However it isn’t hard to go for a long time without getting a set item. In the past 3 weeks, I did 22 3 LC spins during Rainbow Riot and I only got one set item. The first 15+ spins yielded no set items for me.

[dr_ishmael]

@jorge-freeman-1 You are making the (extremely common) mistake of assuming that you should be seeing “average” results regardless of sample size. In other words, if the average shows that the GPM gives a set item once in 6 tries, then you expect that you should get exactly 1 set item if you roll the GPM 6 times, or exactly 2 set items if you roll 12 times. This is a logical fallacy.

In order to have any confidence about statistical results, they must be computed over a large sample size – your 15 data points are nowhere near large enough. The averages I quoted are based on over 100 GPM rolls during RR, and even that isn’t enough to have complete statistical confidence.

Please accept the fact that your experience is neither unprecedented nor uncommon – both myself and @killerkea have stated that we’ve also experienced runs of 15 or more rolls without receiving a set item. In fact, this actually bodes well for your future at the GPM, due to the phenomenon of “regression toward the mean,” which means you’ll eventually see runs where, for example, you get 3 set items in only 5 rolls (something that has happened to me twice).