Thoughts on saving challenge tokens?

[TriPolar]

@nemisispig That is something that I’m going to try to add to my research… Good idea…

@optimuspig exactly what I was trying to explain as well

It would also not surprise me if Rovio periodically tweaked the odds of labs spins.

There’s no reason to believe that just because a particular result occupies 1 out of 5 slots, that the probability of hitting that is going to be 20%.

It’s no different from slot machines. Just because cherries occupy X number of spaces on the tumblers, doesn’t mean that actual underlying odds of them turning up is going to have any relation to that.

[Francis Crawford]

@Optimus_Pig,

My sample size is smaller than your sample size. True.

But to claim that your figures are “statistical” and mine are “non-statistical” is … weird.

The one and only time I taught a university statistics course, Jimmy Carter was still president. Even so, I have some familiarity with current terminology, and what you’re saying doesn’t ring any bells for me.

[TriPolar]

@weenaoise Good point about the overall balance in terms of all players vs. Individual players in terms of results. However the research we’ve been involved in with the Facebook group had a lot of people contributing to it. I can’t remember specific numbers but it did also include different parts of the world.

@optimuspig I hate to slap people down like another red one that we know but I’m not sure that you can win the argument or even open the mind to the possibility of the reality of this… Especially, when the person on the other side didn’t know you had to shoot the red button to activate the force shield bridges in Pig city…

Sorry to call you out on this (I’m not calling names, those that don’t know won’t know) but Angry Birds 101, the game usually tells you exactly what to do.. Bright Red light, finger pointing to it, the emergency type sound… Really, if you have been playing since November, why didn’t you try it at least once?? You’ve spend gems to try to continue but never thought about shooting that button in a shoot everything type of game?? That alone pretty much cancels your validity in a lot of comments, especially when it’s contrary to what the entire community has experienced. I know it’s a learning process and I don’t mean to utterly disgrace you. You did give us a bit more to think about but it’s not like you didn’t know that the Grimlocks can destroy the lavaballs from the WMTs. That I could understand.

Sorry to interrupt your back and forth, please continue… After all we are here to help each other not slam each other as I’ve seen a certain red avatar do.

[Francis Crawford]

@TriPolar,

The bit about the red lights is a pretty silly attack on me. Obviously, I’ve been taking the out the overwhelming majority of the time …

As for your stats — maybe I misread, but I got the impression that the total number of trials was under 100. That’s not large at all.

[TriPolar]

@franciscrawford I’m sorry but it was a bit comical that something basic was unknown, yet argued as diligently as you did (with an authoritative style). Dismissing the study & experiences of the multitude over your own…but as I also mentioned, your argument did lead to other factors that were not considered at all in the past. Like (but not limited to) the experience of one (as we all only look at the possibilities from our singular view) vs. The lab payouts being from a total of all players.

[Francis Crawford]

@TriPolar,

If someone had said that 2 Energon Grimlocks plus 2 Goldbite Grimlocks added up to 5 Grimlocks in total, I would have corrected their error in mathematics, and I would have been right to do so irrespective of my knowledge of the game.

The same applies to the actual case at hand.

If that makes you laugh, please enjoy your chuckles. :)

[TriPolar]

@franciscrawford Either you are really misunderstanding me or you like having conflicts with people. I didn’t mean comical as in a comedy show more like sinical, shaking my head, the contrast, seriously arguing something technical without understanding of the basics!?!? Which are given to you by the game itself. Nothing is wrong with not understanding something. It’s one of the purposes of this site, to learn and help each other. Not be counter productive like our last couple of post.
I don’t know your level of knowledge or experience with these types of technology but while 2 + 2 = 4 …. 4 ÷ 2 ≠ 2.
If it was there wouldn’t be so many people trying to figure out the probability of hitting success. My intent was not to humiliate you but to find another way to get you to see what you obviously couldn’t. Also, not because of an ego on my part but rather the tone you are taking with those who disagree with you, regardless of the data presented to you and explained to you. Things like this need continued analysis for any true answer at any given point, since code changes are constantly made through soft updates that you do not have to approve. Most times you will not even notice the download.
I don’t know what else I can say to help you understand…

[sukerman13]

@optimuspig, some times i also loose an amount of gems, some others i win.. generally,when i wake up i see how many gems i have…till i go to sleep, i see what i have earned from missions/spins/daily achievment from jenga mode and everything and then i say ” i have earned ” or ” i have lost ” gems… it is just a game and dont really care if sometimes i go to bed by loosing some ( in the spins of the lab )…sometimes you win,sometimes you dont !!

@tripolar, i agree with you in everything..i was also fine in the first day,because i was 1st in the prvious event, so i earned 1000 easily…i also agree that from Rovio sometimes they dont do their job well, but they also always try to do the best afterwards..!

@weenaoise, i believe that what you said, it was for fun and not for making fun of me,because as i mentioned above, sometimes you WIN,sometimes you DONT !! it is not like a slot machine though, it is a little bit easier to win some gems here in ABT than a slot machine in a casino…..
anyway, i see here a small ”argument” the past 2-3 days, lets end everything and await for the new event !!!

[Francis Crawford]

@TriPolar,

Let’s put it this way — talking down to me about mathematics, especially probability-related areas of mathematics, is a Really Bad Idea.

Talking down to me about software is almost as silly.

The idea that this discussion involves YOU correcting MY errors is hilarious.

But at least you’re trying — and with a few exceptions succeeding — to be polite about how you phrase your thoughts, which puts you way ahead of a lot of other folks I’ve encountered in my 25 years online.

I’m grateful for all the accurate information I’ve received in my short time in this forum.

Have a nice life.

[Optimus_Pig]

@franciscrawford

Despite your claims to be some sort of mathematician or statistician, apparently you’ve never heard of the concept of mathematical or statistical expectation???.

And while I’ll admit that the terminology I used in my earlier comment may not be totally correct, at least I’m not claiming to be the smartest kid in the class.

But hey, don’t take my word for it. You can redo the test for yourself. BTW, it was a chi-squared test, in case you’re not sure which one to use. I’m sure you remember how, but if it’s been too long since the last time you did one, then there are plenty of online sites that will do it for you. Here’s a link to the dataset and the results.

In any case, from what I’m hearing you say, and from your vociferous defense of the lab odds, I can’t help but wonder if you’re really a Rovio plant.

[TriPolar]

Edit: @sukerman13 You’re Right, I Agree…

[sukerman13]

Come on guys,lets keep it in a nice way, we are all here for the game, not to making fun of anyone… Peace !!

[Francis Crawford]

@TriPolar — You figured me out. I’m part of a conspiracy to discredit your pioneering research, and more generally to undermine this message board of which you are the guiding leader. The public simply isn’t ready for the information you have uncovered.

@sukerman13 — I thought as you did. But it seems we were incorrect.

[sukerman13]

We have to have in mind that not everything happens to everyone….
For sure the mathematics usually tell the truth, but where gamble comes by, sometimes mathematics do not always tell the truth… i do not have any problem with anyone, we just sharing opinions here, i only want to know if @weenaoise did made fun of me or not.. ( in a previous post…)

[Optimus_Pig]

@franciscrawford

I think you were meaning to respond to me rather than to @tripolar?

FYI, not my pioneering research, nor any one person’s – as I’ve clearly stated and given credit to, it was the collaborative effort of the ABTDP Facebook group.

In any case, it seems that the only person who’s not ready for this information is you, since the only thing it undermines is your personal opinion regarding the lab odds.

Which is surprising given that you’re all about the empirical evidence, right? /s

[Francis Crawford]

@OptimusPig,

You are correct. I mis-attributed one of your posts to @TriPolar, and based on that error I mistakenly implied that he is a paranoid idiot.

[WeeNaoise]

@sukerman13 – yes, I was having a little bit of fun, but only in the most gentle way. I certainly didn’t mean to cause any upset, but I still think you are incorrect that the odds in the lab for each outcome are equal.

[Optimus_Pig]

@franciscrawford

You are correct. I mis-attributed one of your posts to @TriPolar, and based on that error I mistakenly implied that he is a paranoid idiot.

D@mn straight. I’m the paranoid idiot. If you’re going to insult someone, at least get it right.

And for someone who’s only been a member of this site for less than two weeks, you sure have one he!! of an opinionated mouth on you.

[Francis Crawford]

@OptimusPig,

Yes, I’m new to Angry Birds Transformers. But I learned, taught and wrote a dissertation on probability-related subjects in the 1970s.

Over the decades, I’ve picked up a collection of horror stories about ways in which apparently clean data can turn out to be anything but.

Obviously, the ways in which you misspoke are in one sense unimportant; we’re just talking about a mobile-device game, after all. But the same kinds of fallacies, when applied to other areas, can have serious and even fatal consequences, for example when people make bad medical decisions for themselves or their kids based on junk science. So if I see them made, I’m apt to point them out.

[Optimus_Pig]

@franciscrawford

I’m not sure how the lab test described above was “junk” science?

Junk science is manipulating the data to arrive at a desired result. Tell me how the above was manipulated? Unless the person who performed the analysis deliberately fudged the totals after collating them and before performing the chi-square test, then I don’t see how this is junk? I mean it’s not as if someone were picking and choosing from different variables to arrive at their desired line of best fit in a regression analysis. It’s a simple “is the observed result statistically significant from the expected results (i.e. 20% chance of landing in each slot).

And no – I never “misspoke”. I stand by the concepts of which I spoke, even if my terminology wasn’t necessarily spot on. But I’m sure I can be forgiven, seeing as how I’ve never had to experience the rigour of writing a dissertation on probability-related subjects.

And for someone with your level of expertise, I’m surprised that you can believe your own personal anecdotal experience with the lab is somehow more valid than that of a group of players actively tracking their lab results over the course of a week’s play.

[TriPolar]

Quick note on the test that was done. Everybody was also given the order of how the materials were entered into the lab machine to ensure that the resulting output was not at risk of potential corruption and ensure the exact correlation to the output received. Please forgive the run on sentence and not use that to disregard any potential information contained within…