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@cognitive wrote:
I don’t have enough gems to climb the tower, unfortunately. I rarely go above 2 pigs’ worth. But, at lower levels, hitting 6 feathers then pig near daily, easily 50% of the time for me, isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence in their randomness.
I do, though only once. :) I’ve saved them up over months of buying the letter, and have about 52,000 now — enough to climb to the top *most* times. (I can hit 22 pigs and make it. Expectation is 18 pigs.)
You’re a stats guy, cognitive, so here’s an interesting insight. Just because I was so firm in my belief, I figured I could be susceptible to selection bias as well, so I started tracking. I’ve been up the tower four times today. (I sat on pig 90 and restored, so it never recorded the fact that I got there, and never awarded me anything).
I randomized the chosen card by just going 4-3-2-1-4-3-2-1 ad infinitum. I’ve chosen each card the same number of times.
One was a miserable run that ended on floor 78. The others made it to the top. Thus, I turned over 71*4 – 9 pig-possible cards, or 275 cards. I should have hit 69 pigs, on average. I hit 77. Above expectation, but a very small sample size, so it doesn’t worry me.
What does concern me is the floors just before jackpot floors, those ending in 4 and 9. I tracked those separately. There are 18 such floors per run, so 72 floors, less the three I couldn’t reach on the bad run.
I could have expected to hit just over 17 pigs on these floors, combined. Any guesses as to the actual number? Bueller? Anyone?
THIRTY THREE. 47.8% of them were pigs.
Again, this is a small sample size, so this could just be noise, but it’s a MUCH bigger outlier. Had this data been within reason, I might have abandoned the tracking, but that makes me want to gather up a couple hundred climbs… which will take time.
I’ll keep everyone here posted.
Jester