Reply To: Conspiracy theories and more…

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ADBjester
@adbjester

@cognitive wrote:

I don’t have enough gems to climb the tower, unfortunately. I rarely go above 2 pigs’ worth. But, at lower levels, hitting 6 feathers then pig near  daily, easily 50% of the time for me, isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence in their randomness.

I do, though only once.  :)  I’ve saved them up over months of buying the letter, and have about 52,000 now — enough to climb to the top *most* times.  (I can hit 22 pigs and make it.  Expectation is 18 pigs.)

You’re a stats guy, cognitive, so here’s an interesting insight.  Just because I was so firm in my belief, I figured I could be susceptible to selection bias as well, so I started tracking.  I’ve been up the tower four times today.  (I sat on pig 90 and restored, so it never recorded the fact that I got there, and never awarded me anything).

I randomized the chosen card by just going 4-3-2-1-4-3-2-1 ad infinitum.  I’ve chosen each card the same number of times.

One was a miserable run that ended on floor 78.  The others made it to the top.  Thus, I turned over 71*4 – 9 pig-possible cards, or 275 cards.  I should have hit 69 pigs, on average.  I hit 77.  Above expectation, but a very small sample size, so it doesn’t worry me.

What does concern me is the floors just before jackpot floors, those ending in 4 and 9.  I tracked those separately.   There are 18 such floors per run, so 72 floors, less the three I couldn’t reach on the bad run.

I could have expected to hit just over 17 pigs on these floors, combined.  Any guesses as to the actual number?  Bueller?  Anyone?

THIRTY THREE.   47.8% of them were pigs.

Again, this is a small sample size, so this could just be noise, but it’s a MUCH bigger outlier.  Had this data been within reason, I might have abandoned the tracking, but that makes me want to gather up a couple hundred climbs… which will take time.

I’ll keep everyone here posted.

Jester