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After some careful observation here is what I think is happening.
1. The algorithm that picks opponents seems to consider your almost-5 birds as 5’s. Meaning, if you’re like me and have ONE bird legit at 5 and all the others from 680 or 690 all the way to the 900’s, tough luck, they count as 5 for matching opponents and yet score as 4’s. I saw that as my birds were, ehem, fattening up :) as I kept being matched with increasing number of 5’er birds. Now every opponent I draw (except the computer generated) has 6-7 birds at 5. I have 1.
2. The opponent selected, of course, is at 5’s. And if 5 birds score 5x you have 20% deficiency in each bird vs your opponent. You aren’t going to win unless the opponent is a complete newbie.
3. The computer generated opponent (LOLZ) ironically matches your birds to a tee. ’nuff said. It’s not a gimme, tho. Immortal micropigs cause me to lose to the guy on occasion. This opponent seems to pop in around 10% of the time.
4. A fair amount of players I encounter with score too low for the birds fielded are cheaters – I often see double birds in their line up. But what’s worse, there seem to be some pretty wild scores towards the end of the game, reminiscent of the ‘3-bird monte’ of times past. You’ll both be playing away, no mistakes or immortal piglets, and all of a sudden, opponent flings his final 2-3 birds earning half a mil points per bird. Not always, but pretty consistently. Very disheartening to be so close till the last bird and all of a sudden be down by half a mil or a mil points. Mind you, with level 5 birds it’s feasible to get half a mil points per bird given the proper bird and room, but every time?