Reply To: Mastery Points

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KerrAvon
@kerravon

@larry You did mention that mathematics was not a strong point. Please don’t take offense. I believe this sums it up.

Some assumptions first
the chance of a snoutling offer is 2/3
the chance of a LC offer is 1/3

At the dojo there are 4 possible outcomes
3 LC offers: probability = 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/27
3 snoutling offers: probability = 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27

1 snoutling offers
There are 3 ways this can occur (S=snoutling offer, LC = lucky coin offer)
(1) slot 1 = S, slot 2 = LC, slot 3 = LC
(2) slot 1 = LC, slot 2 = S, slot 3 = LC
(3) slot 1 = LC, slot 2 = LC, slot 3 = S
probability for each = 2/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 2/27
multiply this by 3 = 6/27

2 snoutling offers
There are 3 ways this can occur
(1) slot 1 = S, slot 2 = S, slot 3 = LC
(2) slot 1 = S, slot 2 = LC, slot 3 = S
(3) slot 1 = LC, slot 2 = S, slot 3 = S
probability for each = 2/3 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 4/27
multiply this by 3 = 12/27

Adding these 1/27 + 8/27 + 6/27 + 12/27 = 27/27 = 1

The most common outcome is 2 snoutling offers (12/27), then 3 snoutling offers (8/27), then 1 snoutling offer (6/27) and least 0 snoutling offers (1/27 = 0.037)

This is just for the initial offerings at the dojo and is based on 2/3 chance of getting a snoutling offering in each slot. We don’t know what the actual chance is, or whether there are just 2 options (LC or snoutling).