Reply To: Mastery Points

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dr_ishmael
@dr_ishmael

WARNING: Long and rambling post incoming. Lots of data and analysis. There’s a TL;DR section at the bottom if you don’t want to read everything. :)

I’m reasonably certain that the dojo is not 100% random. The main reason for this is something I’ve noticed consistently over the past couple months: the chance of getting a LC offer increases with the number of other LC offers on the board, which is the opposite of what statistics would predict. Of course, I now have data to support this conjecture. :)

THE STATISTICS! There are 31 possible offers to show: one snoutling offer for each of the 25 classes, one 15 LC offer for each of the 5 birds, and one 75 LC offer for all birds. In a purely random selection, the chance of picking a single LC offer from the entire pool would be 6/31 =~ 19.4%. Now that LC offer can’t be picked again, so the chance of picking a second LC offer is (6-1)/(31-1) = 5/30 = 16.67% – almost 3% less than the chance of picking the first one. The chance of getting a third LC offer is (6-2)/(31-2) = 4/29 = 13.8% – another 3% reduction!

THE DATA! Based on my 25 visits so far, this is quite obviously not what’s going on in the game. When I have no LC offers on the board, it takes an average of 2.9 snoutling purchases before the first LC offer appears. Then, it takes an average of 2.4 purchases for the second LC offer to appear, and 1.8 purchases for the third LC offer. That’s clearly a case of increasing probability of picking an LC offer, not decreasing as the statistics show. On 50% of visits, I’ve only been able to make 1 snoutling purchase between the 2nd LC offer appearing and the 3rd LC offer appearing; that’s only happened ~25% of the time between the 1st and 2nd LC offers.

What I take away from this is that the formula for picking a dojo offer has a dynamic weighting factor that makes it increasingly likely to pick an LC offer over a snoutling offer as you purchase more snoutling offers. This factor is probably reset, or at least decreased, when you buy an LC offer.

Once a snoutling offer is chosen, however, the choice of class seems pretty random. It certainly isn’t based on current mastery totals – the least common and the second-most common classes I’ve seen are the two that are closest to rank 10. Wizard needs 1756 mastery and has appeared twice; Tricksters need 1095 mastery and have appeared 12 times. The only class that has appeared more than Tricksters is Spies (14 times), and they still need 20,692 mastery.

Wizard and Spies are currently my most-played classes, but since they come in at opposite ends of the frequency spectrum, I don’t think the dojo considers how often you play a class for snoutling offers, either.

LC offers, on the other hand, might be affected by usage. I typically use Chuck/Bomb/Blues for arena battles, although I use swap out Bomb for Matilda (Druid) whenever I get an opponent with Thorns. Thus Red is my least-used bird, and he’s only seen 6 LC offers. I use Matilda somewhat often, and she’s had 8 offers. Chuck and Blues both have 11, while Bomb has 16.

The all-birds LC offer has appeared 25 times, significantly more than Bomb has. Either there’s a weighting within LC offers to favor All, or it may even be considered as its own group, separated from both snoutling offers and single-bird LC offers.

—– TL;DR —–

  • The chance of getting an LC offer increases with the number of snoutling purchases made, contradicting the statistical predictions and strongly implying that a dynamic weighting factor is involved.
  • Classes seem to be picked randomly for snoutling offers – usage and total mastery don’t appear to have any effects.
  • Bird usage might be a factor in picking them for LC offers.
  • The All-birds LC offer is weighted higher than single-bird LC offers.