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Yeah, that dial is a very rough estimate and shouldn’t be taken as more than a suggestion. For example, it won’t tell you if you’re bringing a whole bunch of high-damage birds to a battle featuring all opponents with Dodge ability, which would make the battle pretty much impossible. I think it’s based solely on your level, how much you’ve upgraded the classes of your birds, and the level of the gear they’re using.
If it’s a battle that requires you to hire someone, just go in with only 2 birds first and see what’s there before making a choice. Or use the walkthroughs on this site of course. That way you won’t waste a hire on a battle you can’t win. (Don’t do this on the daily dungeons though, you only get one shot choosing a team for those before it closes again until next week.)