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@jo-ha
I would agree with your conclusion but not with the assumption, that the hats have something to do with it.
The first three streaks I finished were exactly the same: the hardest oponent was game 6/10, followed by 5 and 7. It felt like the algorithm for a regular streak still apply and reset when hitting game 8-10. In those last three games I had only low differences in the FP and not many spells, while in game 6 I face players with 5 spells and 40-50 FP higher than my own.
Try keeping the hats for game 8-10, let’s see if those games get as bad as games 5-7.