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@marty-schofield
I don’t think anybody knows what the percentage chance is. There is a “6x chance” graphic that shows up every now and then by mistake. So the normal chance must be maximum 16.667% – as there is an uncalled “6x more likely” mode written into the game, and that could only max at 100%.
That’s the upper limit for what it could be. The actual percentage seems much lower, I’d guess somewhere around 5% for the nest machine and 10% for the arena machine.