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@smwforever45 I apologize. My response was poorly worded. I meant that literally interpreting the description couldn’t be correct because it leads to behavior of the game that is not observed.
It’s becoming clear (at least to me) that the technical writing skills of whoever is working on ABE at Chimera leave a little to be desired. Or perhaps the coder who is doing things is terrible at explaining what is going on so the tech writer gets confused. Anyway, very nice work figuring out the statistics. A 1/3 to 2/3 increase on probability makes sense.
The Cheat set seems worthless to me, since the coin toss has become largely irrelevant to determining the outcome of Arena battles. What I’ve decided I want is a “nerf/mastery” set, that cripples a power bird but gives double mastery drops (either by doubling the points or doubling the frequency at which mastery drops). For example, the idea would be it would make Paladin do 50% damage and healing, have a shield that only deflected 20% of the damage, but nearly every defeated pig would drop double mastery points. Getting through Cave 11-5 would be a challenge in that scenario, but the payout would be huge, so you would have to decide if it was worth it to spend potions.