Testing Fate: Stats for Wheel, Caldron and Anvil
I was curious to see if the "wheel of fortune" ran true, or if it was as lopsided as a carnival barker's. In the process I was spurred into testing the caldron/anvil die ratios by
this thread. Here are my results:
Wheel of Fortune (800 spins)
Direction Expect Actual
UL (1st Star) 100 101
UP (2nd Star) 100 106
UR (3rd Star) 100 114
Right 100 103
Down-Right 100 92
Down 100 107
Down-Left 100 84
Left 100 93
--- ---
800 800
Conclusion: Wheel
is balanced at 1/8 odds per wedge.
The direction listed is based on where the main prize fell relative to the center. Even though some of the figures may seem out of whack, none of the variances are statistically significant.
Golden Caldron/[Anvil] (140 rolls)
Stars Count Expect
0 1* 0
1 17 20
2 79 80
3 43 40
--- ---
140 140
*There is a bug with the golden crafters that will sometimes yield 0.
Conclusion: Stars 0-3 in ratio
0:1:4:2.
This is a good match to the concluding ratio, though the number of rolls is too small for a statistically confident conclusion.
HERE IS WHERE
YOU COME IN! I need more data on the crafters (caldron and anvil), especially the
normal and
diamond versions. I assumed above that the anvil follows the caldron, but confirmation would be nice. If you can, PLEASE craft some ingredients/items and keep track of your rolls. When you have at least 80 you want to submit, reply to this post and I will update the stats.
Hope this helps, and thanks!