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Several people have compiled larger (1000 minimum) statistical sets, myself included. They all indicate an ever so slight <2% lean toward a loss. It may indeed be just a tiny bit tilted or our sets are just not large enough yet.
Doesn’t matter, the arena was never meant to be easy. You need to find a way to be productive no matter how things go. You would never always be the strongest team in real life, why expect it in a game. You wouldn’t expect to always go first either. Finding a way to win that works for you is what’s required. 12 weeks is a long time, more than enough to reach any goal you set for yourself if you work at it.
As you move up in the leagues the focus shifts from the daily objectives to good average daily play any way. Finding a way to be better than a 90% winner no matter what gets you there and will keep you there easily.
This forum is full of advice that will move you toward being a strong player, including strategies to help with coin toss losses. PvP isn’t for everyone and is optional for all.