Reply To: Coin Toss: Not fair?

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Jamairoqui
@jamairoqui

After a few more days of keeping track, I find that I consistently run about 10 +/- 5 battles fewer wins than losses (out of about 50 total battles per day). This sort of consistent bias low is precisely what you would find in a rigged game. It’s why the two green slots exists on a roulette wheel (so the probability of getting black or red is just a little below 0.5).

Think about it this way, Rovio wants you to spend real money to buy LCs. If you lose the toss more often than you win (especially when fighting opponents that have better flags and weapons), you want to buy more coins so you can keep your place in the standings. It is not in their interest financially to make the coin toss fair, and by biasing it just a little, people can convince themselves it is fair (because sometimes it looks fair just by chance), but Rovio still, on average, makes money because there are more losses.

Of course, with the new version that gives you what might be an objective ranking of your total level versus your opponent, it might be possible to figure out if the odds of winning or losing the coin toss shift based on relative rank. But I also found out I don’t really care anymore. I’ve demonstrated to myself that it’s very likely not a fair toss, but also very likely irrelevant. Progress in a league is more related to having hours in the day available for grinding, and losing, or winning, the coin toss mostly comes down to 2-star or 3-star win, respectively, outcomes.