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I’m not sure if I’m doing the math correctly at the bottom so someone please confirm or correct it. Let’s assume there is an equal chance of getting each of the 30 set items.
Your chance of not getting a specific set item after n set items would be
(29/30)^n
You can rephrase this and say your chances of getting that specific set item is
1 – (29/30)^n
You get the following:
n Chance of getting specific set item
30 63.8%
60 86.9%
90 95.3%
120 98.3%
150 99.4%
180 99.8%
210 99.9%
The following part is what I’m not sure how to calculate properly, but since there are 30 items the chance to get all 30 would be the chance above to the 30th power and you get these numbers
n Chance of getting all 30 set items
30 0.0%
60 1.5%
90 23.4%
120 59.6%
150 83.0%
180 93.5%
210 97.6%
After 133 set items you had a 71.7% of getting all 30 of them so the odds were in your favor, but not drastically so.