Reply To: Arena set items

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freeman
@jorge-freeman-1

@dr_ishmael Your data for the chances of getting set items on the rainbow riot of the ordinary GP is consistent with my experience. But, as you say, about the one from Arena you are only guessing…
On your math based on the 18% of chance assumption I’m even less convinced. To start 18% of 15 being 2.7 if you want to round this number you get 3, not 2 as you state. Then a chance of 18% to get means 82% to not get. So the chance of not getting any set item in 15 tries is 5% or 1/20. This is a lower enough probability to me to make it relevant. One thing is to have bad luck and not receiving any set item in a series of 20 tries between several other series. But to get such a bad luck to begin with makes me suspicious. I don’t trust the rainbow riot at the Arena’s golden pig anymore.
Besides this is just a case to add to several other evidence that the randomness of the results of the raffles at AB Epic sometimes doesn’t exist. But this is a bigger topic that doesn’t fit here.