Reply To: Mastery Points

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greatleo
@greatleo

I ran two separate tests during which my birds took out all 6 pigs–in one turn–in the first wave. If possible, take out all 5 pigs in the second wave, again in one turn. In all tests I used a Berserker (mostly for its Explode feature, but it’s also very powerful when the Rage Chili is filled) either a Paladin or Samurai, and either a Spies or Mage.

Here’s the tactic I used:
Attack Big Boss with Paladin/Samurai and either Spies or Mage.

Scenario 1: If any of the weaker pigs are still standing, use Berserker’s Explode to finish off the wave. After wave 2 loads, restart to wave 1.

Scenario 2: All of the weaker pigs are killed. Finish off Big Boss with Berserker and proceed to wave two with the Rage Chili still filled. Attack Rogue Leader with Paladin/Samurai and either Spies or Mage. Finish off the wave using Berserker’s Explode. After wave 3 loads, restart to wave 1.

In each case I ran 50 Wave 1 attacks, and tallied the number of Wave 2s. That number depended on the randomness of chain attacks from Red and Mage/Spies. I assume that the Big Boss drops mastery with the same chance as the weaker pigs, but with twice the value.

Here’s my raw data (I’m pretty sure I spaced out undercounted a wave here):

Test 1, Dec. 13:
Regater Leo mastery before/after:
Paladin 4379 – 3385 = 994
Berserker 7725 – 6731 = 994
Spies 1718 – 724 = 994
Wave 2 scenarios: 9
Total Mastery drops = 994/7 = 142
Mastery opportunities: Wave 1 = 350 (i.e. 50 x 7 [Big Boss = 2, plus 5 weaker pigs])
Mastery opportunities: Wave 2 = 45 (i.e. 9 x 5 pigs)
Total mastery opportunities: 395
Mastery probability: 142/395 = 0.395

Gerta Leo mastery before/after:
Paladin 16932 – 16057 = 875
Berserker 36376 – 35501 = 875
Spies 5392 – 4517 = 875
Wave 2 scenarios: 10
Total Mastery drops = 875/7 = 125
Mastery opportunities: Wave 1 = 350 (i.e. 50 x 7 [Big Boss = 2, plus 5 weaker pigs])
Mastery opportunities: Wave 2 = 50 (i.e. 9 x 5 pigs)
Total mastery opportunities: 400
Mastery probability: 125/400 = 0.3125

Test 2, Dec. 14:
Regater Leo mastery before/after:
Samurai 1281 – 301 = 980
Mage 11612 – 10632 = 980
Berserker 1710 – 730 = 980
Wave 2 scenarios: 18
Total Mastery drops = 980/7 = 140
Mastery opportunities: Wave 1 = 350 (i.e. 50 x 7 [Big Boss = 2, plus 5 weaker pigs])
Mastery opportunities: Wave 2 = 90 (i.e. 18 x 5 pigs)
Total mastery opportunities: 440
Mastery probability: 140/440 = 0.318

Gerta Leo mastery before/after:
Samurai 9826 – 8937 = 889
Berserker 34595 – 33706 = 889
Spies 3111 – 2222 = 889
Wave 2 scenarios: 13
Total Mastery drops = 889/7 = 127
Mastery opportunities: Wave 1 = 350 (i.e. 50 x 7 [Big Boss = 2, plus 5 weaker pigs])
Mastery opportunities: Wave 2 = 65 (i.e. 13 x 5 pigs)
Total mastery opportunities: 415
Mastery probability: 127/415 = 0.306

Finally, we can combine all of these results to hopefully get a more accurate probability:

Total mastery dropped: 142 + 125 + 140 + 127 = 534
Total mastery opportunities: 395 + 400 + 440 + 415 = 1650
Mastery probability: 534 / 1650 = 0.323

Honestly, I’m tempted to throw out the very Test 1, since I’m pretty sure I under-counted waves, and it’s an outlier. Meanwhile, Test 2 gives numbers very close to my first test where I only took out the 5 weak pigs in wave 1:
Probability = Drops / Opportunities = (140 + 127) / (440 + 415) = 267 / 855 = 0.3123.

This value is very close to the 0.313 probability from my very first test that took out only the 5 weak pigs in wave 1, 200 times.

The only way to really know if Big Boss drops mastery with a higher probability than the weaker pigs is to craft some birds that have no chain attacks, and then take out the Big Boss, and only the Big Boss, say, 1000 times. Small numbers of runs contain too much randomness.