Reply To: Mastery Points

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burbman
@burbman

@sutekh137 – Keep up the good work!  One thing that I found, after I had maxxed out one full bird, was that the 75 for all option showed up more often than I would have expected it to on a purely random basis.  Approximately 80% of my dojo visits finished up with that as one of the three offers showing.  Far more than the 60% I was anticipating, which leads me to believe that the game replaces the 15LC for bird class X, where X is the completed bird with an additional 75 for all, but cannot show more than one of the 75 cards at any one time.  That said, I also saw some of my longer runs after the 75 for all card was one of the initial offerings, which reinforces my thoughts.  Again, I only got 100 visits with the one complete family to test, so this could all be small sample size bias, but my theory is as follows:

  • Player starts with a randomly shuffled deck of cards consisting of one snoutling offer per bird class available, one 15 LC offer per bird family, and one 75LC offer
  • Selected offers are replaced randomly within the deck, and for every card replaced, an additional LC card is also added to the deck
  • Identical offers cannot be displayed simultaneously, so if a duplicate offer is drawn, it is replaced randomly into the deck
  • As 15LC offers are no longer available due to the lack of available classes, they are replaced by 75LC offers.

I will need to test this theory in November when we get the next cap increase, but it supports (at least theoretically) the findings that @poptimus, yourself, and I have seen this go around, and supports the declining % of snout offers that @poptimus saw between the initial presentation, and replacement offers.  It also explains why I did not see dramatically longer runs as I got down to just two bird families remaining.  I would have expected runs to get much longer as there were only three LC offer types, and the likelihood of hitting all three LC offers quickly in a population where the snout offers were being replaced as selected seems to me to be quite low.  I should have had a 1 in 13 chance of the third space filling with an LC offer, yet my runs were never much longer than they were in the beginning.