Reply To: Conspiracy theories and more…

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ADBjester
@adbjester

@ryan-kochie wrote:   @hank, care to comment on the randomness of the treasures? How we can get rewarded the feat before selecting the card?

Having worked in gaming, I predict Hank will not answer, not because there’s a conspiracy, but because it’s a ludicrous theory.  So, I’ll say what Hank likely wants to (my guess), but cannot:

It never happened.  You think you saw it, due to pre-selection bias (you already believe it is rigged, so you see what you’ve already trained your mind to accept), but you did not.  If you think it happens…. show me a video capture of it happening.

There is NO reason for Rovio to game the odds, because getting caught for it NOT being random (which is EASILY proven by anyone tracking outcomes over time) would kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

They are MORE than happy to charge $1 per 100 gems (or less, with bulk discounts), and recoup them (and those they give away as grease to get the rubes to buy more) by offering places to spend them in game…. in completely random fashion.

Someone above said they don’t get the “top prize” often enough, but I also don’t see that.  I get it about what I should (mainly because I don’t have selection bias and don’t gripe when I see 1000 gems and didn’t get it this time).  The *really* big prizes don’t come up every selection, and when they do, you’re only one in five to get them.  So, if you see a 500 gem card go by that you didn’t get… you weren’t supposed to.  Not because it’s rigged, but because one in 5 means 4 times in five you get the booby prize.  That’s how naturally short odds work.

I have the same opinion of those who claim the “mystery point brigade” is rigged to make them spend gems in the arena.  (This theory is that they can be winning an arena match only to have an opponent race from behind with several million points, to overtake them very quickly).  This is also bogus, as I’ll address in the “About the Arena” thread.

Ditto the “game physics change day to day”, i.e. one day Terence is invincible, the next day, can’t hit a thing.  The game physics are constant — it would be foolhardy (and fairly easily reverse-engineered — decompilers are *everywhere* now), and would provide a horrible gaming experience.  (Instead, players play differently from day to day or session to session — sometimes more alert, sometimes less, etc).

It continues to boggle my mind how many people actually believe that Trump colluded with the Pigs to rig the game.

Oh, did I mix my metaphors?  Sorry.  Eggs on my face.

Jester