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Remind me what your maxed classes situation is? I thought you were doing something similar to me…?
Interesting theory. The way I’ve been tracking the data, it lends some possible credence. If you check out the spreadsheet I had e-mailed you recently again (the one that shows my data from before I had maxed out any classes), you’ll see that the percentages do indeed decrease slightly in the first, second, third, and fourth rounds of replacement offers (60.6%, 54.6%, 52.6%, and 50.0% respectively, based on sample sizes of 287, 174, 95, and 50). Beyond that, the samples are too small to be significant. (Really, even the fourth replacement offer sample may be too small, right? I don’t know as much as stats as I would like to, at the moment!)
My data so far from after having maxed out seven classes is currently returning replacement slot Snout offer rates of 54.2%, 46.4%, 48.7%, and 42.1% based on sample sizes of 155, 84, 39 and 19. It’s certainly possible that more data will solidify these numbers further, obviously.
Oh, and I should also add that my Snoutling offers have tracked very closely with my expectations in terms of which birds they’re being offered to. Since I haven’t maxed out any Bomb classes yet, my theory is that he should receive roughly 26.1% of Snout offers (6 of my remaining 23 classes), and he’s received 25.2% in reality. Here are the corresponding results for all five birds:
Red: 17.4% expected, 12.6% actual
Chuck: 17.4% expected, 22.1% actual
Matilda: 21.7% expected, 22.4% actual
Bomb: 26.1% expected, 25.2 actual
Blues: 17.4% expected, 17.7% actual