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2) Chest awards are pre-determined to maximize profits / gem purchases.
Sorry, but I can definitely tell that this is true:
Remember, prior to the recent update you got awarded all black pearls from the daily challenge at once. If you maxed out your birds, you get two chests instead of one.
One day I found 20 pearls in the first chest. So normally, my pearl count should have gone up by 50 (20 chest + 30 from rewards). But it went up by 70. Guess what I found in chest two. Yes, 20 pearls. But I opened that after I already got the 70 pearls. The only explanation is that the chest outcome is predetermined.
The odds are not so bad here, so you don’t here much complaining.