Reply To: Tower of Fortune odds

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cognitive
@cognitive

Even if you assume 25% equal chance for all cards the math is silly. To get to say 11 with no pigs is what, 6 drawings (10 minus first 2 minus 5 an 10 hat level) at 75% no pig chance each so .75 ^ 6 which is a bit less than .17? Meaning 1 in 6?

Compare that with your own experience, how often do you go no pig thru 10? Nearly one in two of mine end up with pig at 3 or 4, much higher than anticipated.

Finally the odds seem to have worsened considerably from a few months ago. If you were willing to pay 3 or 4 or so pigs you could make it to 25 or 30. Not these days.