Home › Forums › Angry Birds 2 Forum › Tower of Fortune odds › Reply To: Tower of Fortune odds
Wearing my operations research hat for a second, the biggest issue is not really drawing a pig, but drawing gem cards.
It’s a near certainty that you will draw one or two pigs before 10. If you’ve drawn say two or three cards with gems you have maybe 30-35 gems, so two pigs is 70 and that’s palatable. But if you have few gems there’s no point. Even after 15-30, more gems are coming in. I’ve been into cases where I was literally several hundred gems ahead – but hit several 70-100 gem cards on the way.
The basic premise here is what is the gem value of 10 pearls from a risk analysis point of view? I’m going back to my Human Decision Analysis course and it’s not unlike what we used to do then. Say you have 10 pearls, no gems, useless spells or feathers, and just finished level 5. At level 6 you draw a pig. Are 20 gems worth 10 pearls?
What if you already won 10 gems so 10 gems for 10 pearls? what if you have 20 gems? 30? This allows Rovio to calculate and fine-tune the risk-reward numbers quite well.