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Honestly, it’s anyone’s guess. I also noted the change in the arena. Previously I would see opponents ranked below me in both star and bird level for streak=1 and 2. Then I would be highly outmatched at streak =3. This is what many here report. Then, coincident with everyone here noting the change, I got a streak=3-like opponent for the first two matches, then when I got to three, it was an opponent I’d typically have at streak=1, with all birds 1 or 2 levels below me.
Attempting to figure out the matching system and algorithm is a waste of time because they are constantly being tweaked server-side as evidenced by our observations.
And we already have strong evidence that we are all not playing under the same (to borrow term from numerical modeling), “boundary conditions”. I may be playing under one particular set of conditions, why you are subject to something different.
With the instabilities in the in-game currency going on now, I’ve just set it down and am killing time with something else.