Reply To: Final boss of ABE anniversary 2 sucks…

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RedYoshi45
@smwforever45

@rowdypup
As you said, it takes 15 minutes for 1 stamina to refill.
So all 15 stamina take 3 hours and 45 minutes. Not 2 hours and 45 minutes.
While 14 stamina (2*7) will take 3 and a half hours.

Also, the chance to get a cake on level 20 is 6/8 not 4/8. :) There’s 8 possible outcomes and 6 of them are a win.
Likewise, the chance to get a cake on levels 16-19 is 3/8.

I’ll try to prove why I play 3-stamina battles not 7-stamina:

First, the odds:
3-stamina:
0 cakes in 5 battles: (5/8)^5 = 9.54%
1 cake in 5 battles: ((5/8)^4 + 3/8) * 5 = 5.72% * 5 = 28.6%
2 cakes in 5 battles: ((5/8)^3 + (3/8)^2) * 10 = 34.3%
3 cakes in 5 battles: ((5/8)^2 + (3/8)^3) * 10 = 20.6%
4 cakes in 5 battles: (5/8 + (3/8)^4) * 5 = 1.24% * 5 = 6.2%
5 cakes in 5 battles: (3/8)^5 = 0.74%

7-stamina:
0 cakes in 2 battles: (2/8)^2 = 6.25%
1 cake in 2 battles: 2/8 * 6/8 * 2 = 18.75% * 2 = 37.5%
2 cakes in 2 battles: (6/8)^2 = 56.25%

Therefore:
Chance to get at least 1 cake:
– 3-stamina battles: 90.46%
– 7-stamina battles: 93.75%

Chance to get at least 2 cakes:
– 3-stamina battles: 61.84%
– 7-stamina battles: 56.25%

While 3-stamina battles have a slightly higher chance of failing, they also have a slightly higher chance of bigger profit. :)