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Our combined for 400 tries gives this:
79x 1-star (20%)
182x 2-star (44%)
139x 3-xtar (35%)
So I think the underlying ratio is:
20% 1-star
45% 2-star
35% 3-star
This gives an expected payoff of +62% each step for a final payout of 2.4x
That is, 100 logs crafted up to squarewood become the equivalent of 240 logs when enchanting. One should always craft up before using items as materials.
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I just crafted 50 x10 Bamboo to Squarewood, and the odds were unusually good:
[3-2-5, 1-4-5, 1-4-5, 0-4-6, 0-6-4]
5x 1-star (10%)
20x 2-star (40%)
25x 3-xtar (50%)
and 50 x10 Ore to Metal Bars:
[1-6-3, 3-3-4, 2-4-4, 1-2-7, 1-8-1]
8x 1-star (16%)
23x 2-star (46%)
19x 3-xtar (38%)
Combined 100 x10 Squarewood & Ore:
13x 1-star
43x 2-star
44x 3-xtar
This is significantly better than the tier 1-2 crafts, and the patterns suggest it to be deliberate.