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The coin flips are in my favor more often than not even when I am winning battles.
I played 226 battles a couple of days ago and won 158 out of the 226 flips.
Out of the 226 battles, I was matched against teams with power of 800 or below 4 times (I am at power of 1500+). I lost the coin flip all 4 times.
One thing I’ve notice is that AI teams seems to get TJ/resurrect/other abilities activations a lot more frequently the more battles I win. I had one battle where the AI Chuck gets 6 consecutive TJ activations in turn 1 of a battle. Needless to say, he manage to KO all my birds and kill my banner that turn.
Statistically, you should expect the coin flip to be a 50/50 thing. Just tweak your line up so that you can get your birds to survive turn 1 or recover quickly in the event you lose the coin flip.