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@graugeist I believe I do have data to support your claim.
Since week 6 of the fourth season, I’ve been collecting the results of the coin flip and the wheel spin at the beginning and end of every arena battle I’ve played. So far, I have a minimum of 20 battles per day (min 140 per arena week) to now, making it a little in excess of 1k+ flip and spin results.
My primary objective was to see if the wheel spin for a 3 star battle really imparts the grand prize at its 37.5% theoretical rate (and it roughly adheres to this figure so far). While with the coin toss, sometimes I use the reconnect method to face a relatively weaker arena team. While I haven’t tabulated and treated the data for this section yet, an overwhelming majority of the time I do win the toss (somewhere in the region of 70%+ if I had to hazard a guess).
If your theory is somewhat true, it may possibly weight your weakest bird’s power against the strongest bird’s power of the opponent.