Tower of Fortune odds

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  • CaptSternn
    @captsternn

    “Said hacks don’t work with pearls, because unlike gems and feathers (which are stored locally on your device and can thus be hacked), your pearl count is stored on the Rovio servers.”

    That would be incorrect, Jester. Gems and pearls are stored on the device. Everything else is stored on the Rovio servers, including feathers. That is what allows me to make a run for the top every day and not lose anything. I have almost 47k gems and some days I don’t even make it to level 80. Even when I do make it, I almost always get a hat I already own. I have six hats of all the 25k hats, won’t let me finish any of the sets. That will change soon as I am closing in on 25k pearls. I expect a major update from Rovio soon, like the Easter update last year. Will see what that brings/

    Epic Buttstomp
    @hubert-lo

    Got to just short of 55 earlier today. 8000 feathers, 1000 gems, bunch of pearls, etc. I made profit in the gems department but had to stop because I cannot afford the 200 gems if the pig showed up again.

    cognitive
    @cognitive

    200? How many pigs did you run into in 55?

    jo-ha
    @jo-ha

    Apparently three.
    It’s very rare to habe such a good run in the tower, but it happens.

    Epic Buttstomp
    @hubert-lo

    My general rules are:
    1. Pig before level 5, just quit. If I have some gains in gems, carry on.
    2. If 2nd pig shows up before 10, consider eat the loss and move on. Unless I have some gems in prize already.
    3. If I see the 3rd pig after that. Seriously consider cutting my losses and claim the prizes.
    4. If I have a sizable amount of gold banked AND my gains are huge already, I may pay the 200 gems once but only once.

    Angry Beaver
    @sambeaver

    My general rule: no more than 70 gems per day. Today i reached 36th.

    desperados
    @desperados

    Usually until you reach to the top 20-30 pigs are guaranteed to show up no matter which card you click on and for everyday wins at lvl 90 it’s 6000 gems 30000 feathers 900 pearls and 40-50 spells max.

    jo-ha
    @jo-ha

    Did anyone else discover a new, longer tower timer? For me the times was always around 20 hours – so I could play every morning on the way to work. Now I’m starting work an hour later, but the timers still says two hours – does it have something to do with the release of the new levels yesterday?

    cognitive
    @cognitive

    Wearing my operations research hat for a second, the biggest issue is not really drawing a pig, but drawing gem cards.

    It’s a near certainty that you will draw one or two pigs before 10. If you’ve drawn say two or three cards with gems you have maybe 30-35 gems, so two pigs is 70 and that’s palatable. But if you have few gems there’s no point. Even after 15-30, more gems are coming in. I’ve been into cases where I was literally several hundred gems ahead – but hit several 70-100 gem cards on the way.

    The basic premise here is what is the gem value of 10 pearls from a risk analysis point of view? I’m going back to my Human Decision Analysis course and it’s not unlike what we used to do then. Say you have 10 pearls, no gems, useless spells or feathers, and just finished level 5. At level 6 you draw a pig. Are 20 gems worth 10 pearls?

    What if you already won 10 gems so 10 gems for 10 pearls? what if you have 20 gems? 30? This allows Rovio to calculate and fine-tune the risk-reward numbers quite well.

    Mechanic Pig
    @christian-cosgrove

    I usually stop at 5-10. It’s small but a lot of gems.

    PolarBearCabal
    @shea-harkness

    @cognitive

    I noticed the same thing regarding gems. Those are showing up disproportionately less than other cards, even pigs.

    My own tracking is starting to show that the pig ratio I’ve been encountering is probable. However, I’m also more and more convinced the outcome of all the cards is decided when you start play. That’s hard for me to be sure on, however, since I’m extremely reluctant to spend gems in the tower, even for research.

    Power Pork
    @abginebird

    Screenshot_2017-04-07-18-12-16.png
    guess that’s a normal thing , huh? -_-

    Mechanic Pig
    @christian-cosgrove

    @abginebird Regardless of what @sambeaver said, use 70 gems on the ToF.

    Pop lots of pigs quick so a pig doesn’t go in the ToF!

    cognitive
    @cognitive

    Even if you assume 25% equal chance for all cards the math is silly. To get to say 11 with no pigs is what, 6 drawings (10 minus first 2 minus 5 an 10 hat level) at 75% no pig chance each so .75 ^ 6 which is a bit less than .17? Meaning 1 in 6?

    Compare that with your own experience, how often do you go no pig thru 10? Nearly one in two of mine end up with pig at 3 or 4, much higher than anticipated.

    Finally the odds seem to have worsened considerably from a few months ago. If you were willing to pay 3 or 4 or so pigs you could make it to 25 or 30. Not these days.

    Eagle Eye
    @scooterbug

    Last 3 days I had pigs on levels 2 and 3

    DJLarryt
    @djlarryt

    I regularly get 2 – 3 pigs before level 5 if I bother to play that high, because I’ll always quit if I get one on level 2 (like @abginebird above) …which is 4 times per week at the least.

    And if I don’t get one on level 2 I’ll most definitely get one on level 4 and it’s a sure bet that if I don’t quit at level 6, I’ll get another one there.

    Never even played past level 10. What’s the point? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, my findings on an experiment with playing a reloaded backup several times showed that I ALWAYS GOT THE SAME CARD OUTCOME NO MATTER WHICH CARD I CHOSE. This is why I don’t believe there is any probability in going through the T0F.

    I think there’s a predetermined game and THAT’S where the probability is. For example, Rovio has created “X” versions of TOF: V#1 always gives you pigs on level 2, 3, 7, 9 etc. V#2 always gives you pigs on level 4, 6, 7, 10 etc. There is a rare game where they allow you to get higher without hitting too many pigs… but that is like the ‘golden ticket’ special. It’s rare and not many people will get it.

    Your probabilities on getting the V#1, V#2, etc are what you are measuring.

    JezzaH99
    @jeremyharrod

    You guys do realise that the tower of fortune is a fix/con?

    Have anyone ever noticed that the first card you turn over is NEVER a pig? Never.

    Mechanic Pig
    @christian-cosgrove

    0 Per 5, 1 per 10, 2 per 15.

    angrynerds2
    @angrynerds2

    Like I said before: It’s manipulated!
    Last two days: Round 1: one feather! Round 2: pig Round 3: pig
    That can’t be coincidence

    Yue
    @yue-zhang

    @angrynerds2
    I don’t think so. I hit the pig until round 11 today. Yesterday, it’s round 7.
    You are in bad luck and thougt it’s manipulated.
    Well, you believe what you insisted and mostly would keep bad luck with you.

    angrynerds2
    @angrynerds2

    That always happens after I’ve won some items the day before.
    That would be a strange kind of bad luck..

    CaptSternn
    @captsternn

    Some days Rovio is merciful, other days not so much. I find my best day on the tower is Saturday. But then bomb suffers because I would choose gems and pearls over feathers. On bad days I would make a run of it and bank feathers for that bird.

    As I have said before, after many experiments, the outcome is generally predetermined. If a person doesn’t have a lot of gems, they won’t get far. If a person does have a lot, tens of thousands, it will usually cost them all or nearly all to reach the top. Increasing the number of gems doesn’t change that, just increases the number of pigs to reach the top.

    desperados
    @desperados

    By reaching to the top the maximum amount of gem you could earn is 6000-7000 and maximum feather is 30000 and with 50-60 random spells..you could go to the top with backup method but it doesn’t worth the time you spend.

    I saw video of people opening legendary chest for 900 gems and they get great rewards comparing to the tower..sometimes you get 5000 gems out of legendary chests sometimes you get 7500 feather…we need legendary chests enabled for everyone.

    jo-ha
    @jo-ha

    @Desperados: in some other thread @hank posted some comment, that we should be waiting for “early this week” for some changes. So probably it will happen soon. There should be an easter update anyway.

    Mechanic Pig
    @christian-cosgrove

    I to a pig on second floor today… WHAT IS LIFE?

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