Mastery Points

[MVNLA2]

@larry @laxietoo @Dr_Ishmael, @partshade — Still not sure what to make of the data. Will have to brush off some rigorous statistical analysis. I doubt any of the differences are significant, although it would really be nice to have more data for highest ranking class = 8 (hint, hint @Partshade). There is also the unknown of any changes Rovio may have made on the Epic servers or in the latest update.

[Anonymous]

@mvnla2 I’ve actually been working a bit behind the scenes here :). I done a lot of Dojo visits and did all the Snoutling upgrades. After keeping track of this for about a week I have NEVER seen anything more or less than 4-8 Snoutling upgrades. I get a LC upgrade sometimes to start with but the Dojo makes up for it. From all points I’m seeing from me and other people the number of Snoutling upgrades definitely decreases as you rank up your birds. I remember back when my birds were rank 6 I was getting like 6-11 every reset.

[MVNLA2]

@partshade — Is your highest rank still 8? What is the average over all your visits, and how many visits have you made? How many classes do you have?
I’ve been keeping track for more than a week (not sure exactly how long, because I didn’t write down the date for the first several). My highest rank is 10; 1 have two 10-rank classes for each bird except Chuck, for whom I only have 1. Several times I’ve gotten 10 or 11 offers, and once 12. The lowest is 1, but I’ve also gotten a lot of 2’s and 3’s.
@Larry and @Laxietoo have 9 as the highest rank; Larry has gotten 14 and 16, and Laxietoo has gotten 13.
Our data for highest rank of 9 or 10 does not support the hypothesis that the number of offers decreases as rank increases, at least not for 9 and 10. The dependence on rank may be entirely non-existent, or much more complicated than we thought.

[Anonymous]

@mvnla2 Well I must not be very lucky then. I know for sure its 4-8 for me. 7 is most common. I have ALL classes and they are rank 7-8. I visit the Dojo about twice a day. Its almost like my Dojo is completely different from everyone elses. It has decreased from ranking up and I’m not getting as much as most people. Very weird.

[KillerKea]

I now have 8 rank 10 birds and in the past week I’ve gotten as low as 3 to as much as 15. I probably average 6, but I’m not keeping track. The most likely scenario is that there is an equal chance for all available options and therefore as you gain more rank 10 birds there will be less snoutling upgrades available so your chance of getting a snoutling upgrade goes down until all your birds except one are rank 10 in which case you have a 100% chance of getting a snoutling upgrade for your last bird.

Another possibly is that everything remains an equal chance and if the RNG lands on something you can’t use it will randomly spit out a choice or a similar type. In this situation your chances of snoutling upgrades are the same no matter what your rank.

Of course there are many other ways they could determine the randomness. For those that care you should track the number of times each LC upgrade shows up. If things are weighted equally, then the number of times you see each LC upgrade should eventually work out to 1/6th for each until you get all headsets for one bird to rank 10.

Once I get about 15 rank 10 birds I should be able to easily tell if the snoutling upgrades slowed down a lot or not. I’m guessing I’ll have 15 in two weeks and will be able to tell you if the snoutling upgrades slowed down or not.

[MVNLA2]

@Partshade — Would be really good if you could keep track by Dojo visit. If your average is >6, it would be higher than for ranks 9 or 10. The previous 2 data points you posted were 4 and 9 for an average of 6.5.

@KillerKea — I started this agreeing with you that the more rank 10 classes you get the fewer upgrades you are offered, but the data collected so far just does not agree with that.
As of right now:

Highest Rank    Number     Average
10              66         5.6
9               109        5.7
8               way too little data

[edit]: There is a 78% probability that the average number of offers for highest rank of 10 and 9 are the same.

[Anonymous]

@mvnla2 I’ll keep a little Sticky Note on my phone and post when I have enough data :).

[MVNLA2]

@Partshade — If you want to send me the data in a PM that will keep this forum a little cleaner.

[KillerKea]

@mvnla2 Actually I’m the one who said that I was getting more snoutling training offers as I gained ranks, but that is the nature of randomness. Since others experienced the opposite of me it is hard to tell how it really works.

[MVNLA2]

@KillerKea — Well, maybe I started this because I disagreed with you. You thought you got more offers, and I thought I got fewer. : D I think the nature of randomness is that you believe whatever is true over a short period of time will be true in general.
I’ve started keeping track of what LC offers show up, but I think the result will only prove whether the LC offers have equal probability, not whether the probability of every offer is equal.

[KillerKea]

Doing some simple math we can easily deduce that a specific LC upgrade appears much more often than a specific snoutling upgrade. In my case there are 6 types of LC upgrades and 23-24 types of snoutling upgrades I could have gotten before my birds reached rank 10 since I don’t have all the headsets. To keep things simple let’s say there were 6 LC upgrades and 24 snoutling upgrades available. If each had an equal chance of appearing, then the LC upgrades would only appear 6/30 or 20% of the time and we would average 12 snoutling upgrades per dojo visit. Most people are probably averaging 5-6 snoutling upgrades/visit. To average 4 snoutling upgrades the LC upgrades would have to be 3 times as common or appear 18 out of 42 times. It is likely that the LC upgrades are about twice as common as a snoutling upgrade or 12 out of 36 which would average 6 snoutling upgrades/visit.

[dr_ishmael]

WARNING: Long and rambling post incoming. Lots of data and analysis. There’s a TL;DR section at the bottom if you don’t want to read everything. :)

I’m reasonably certain that the dojo is not 100% random. The main reason for this is something I’ve noticed consistently over the past couple months: the chance of getting a LC offer increases with the number of other LC offers on the board, which is the opposite of what statistics would predict. Of course, I now have data to support this conjecture. :)

THE STATISTICS! There are 31 possible offers to show: one snoutling offer for each of the 25 classes, one 15 LC offer for each of the 5 birds, and one 75 LC offer for all birds. In a purely random selection, the chance of picking a single LC offer from the entire pool would be 6/31 =~ 19.4%. Now that LC offer can’t be picked again, so the chance of picking a second LC offer is (6-1)/(31-1) = 5/30 = 16.67% – almost 3% less than the chance of picking the first one. The chance of getting a third LC offer is (6-2)/(31-2) = 4/29 = 13.8% – another 3% reduction!

THE DATA! Based on my 25 visits so far, this is quite obviously not what’s going on in the game. When I have no LC offers on the board, it takes an average of 2.9 snoutling purchases before the first LC offer appears. Then, it takes an average of 2.4 purchases for the second LC offer to appear, and 1.8 purchases for the third LC offer. That’s clearly a case of increasing probability of picking an LC offer, not decreasing as the statistics show. On 50% of visits, I’ve only been able to make 1 snoutling purchase between the 2nd LC offer appearing and the 3rd LC offer appearing; that’s only happened ~25% of the time between the 1st and 2nd LC offers.

What I take away from this is that the formula for picking a dojo offer has a dynamic weighting factor that makes it increasingly likely to pick an LC offer over a snoutling offer as you purchase more snoutling offers. This factor is probably reset, or at least decreased, when you buy an LC offer.

Once a snoutling offer is chosen, however, the choice of class seems pretty random. It certainly isn’t based on current mastery totals – the least common and the second-most common classes I’ve seen are the two that are closest to rank 10. Wizard needs 1756 mastery and has appeared twice; Tricksters need 1095 mastery and have appeared 12 times. The only class that has appeared more than Tricksters is Spies (14 times), and they still need 20,692 mastery.

Wizard and Spies are currently my most-played classes, but since they come in at opposite ends of the frequency spectrum, I don’t think the dojo considers how often you play a class for snoutling offers, either.

LC offers, on the other hand, might be affected by usage. I typically use Chuck/Bomb/Blues for arena battles, although I use swap out Bomb for Matilda (Druid) whenever I get an opponent with Thorns. Thus Red is my least-used bird, and he’s only seen 6 LC offers. I use Matilda somewhat often, and she’s had 8 offers. Chuck and Blues both have 11, while Bomb has 16.

The all-birds LC offer has appeared 25 times, significantly more than Bomb has. Either there’s a weighting within LC offers to favor All, or it may even be considered as its own group, separated from both snoutling offers and single-bird LC offers.

—– TL;DR —–

• The chance of getting an LC offer increases with the number of snoutling purchases made, contradicting the statistical predictions and strongly implying that a dynamic weighting factor is involved.
• Classes seem to be picked randomly for snoutling offers – usage and total mastery don’t appear to have any effects.
• Bird usage might be a factor in picking them for LC offers.
• The All-birds LC offer is weighted higher than single-bird LC offers.

[dr_ishmael]

@killerkea You posted right after I began writing that thesis up there. :) To summarize my points that relate to your point: Yes, LC offers are definitely more common than statistics would predict, although my experience suggests that they become more common as you make more snoutling purchases, so the probabilities may be dynamic.

[MVNLA2]

@DR_Ishmael @KillerKea — Wow! Great analysis! I think it is time to conclude that the LC offers are more common than statistic would predict.
However, the question still remains whether the snoutling offers increase / decrease / are the same as the highest rank of any of your classes increases.

[dr_ishmael]

@mvnla2 While I’ve only collected a little data from my second account (since it’s more difficult to farm SRC on it since the emulator breakage), I’m pretty sure that my two accounts have historically been pretty similar in terms of dojo offerings. My main account is all rank 9 with 3 rank 10’s, while my second account is (currently) mostly rank 5 or 6. If the maximum rank of your classes had any effect on the dojo, I’m pretty sure I would’ve noticed any significant difference between my accounts back when the second one was working through ranks 2/3/4 and my main one was already in ranks 8 and 9.

[MVNLA2]

@KillerKea @all — Since I started keeping track of Dojo offerings of mastery for LC, the Mastery for all for 75 LC has showed up every single time and is running at 2 to 3 times the probability of a that for any single bird. I know I’ve seen sets of Dojo offerings without mastery for all, and it is still pretty early in terms of statistics, but…

[KerrAvon]

@mvnla2 Your observation is consistent with the data and conclusions presented by @dr_ishmael above. There appears to be a weighting for the offer of 75LC (all birds) that makes it more common than the offers for 15LC (single birds).

[KillerKea]

I now have 10 rank 10 mastery birds and it does seem like the snoutling offers are starting to slow down, but the sample size of my data is way too small right now. In the past few days as I increased from 7 rank 10 birds to 10 rank 10 birds I generall see only 3-6 snoutling upgrades and my high was 10.

[MVNLA2]

@KillerKea — Are you keeping track in a spreadsheet or something? I’ve proven several times that my gut feeling is not backed by the statistics.
[Edit]: I also have 10 rank 10 classes, although I have 3 bomb, and only 1 chuck.
The average snoutling offerings is not really changing, it has remained at about 5.5 per visit for a while. That’s averaged over 75 visits. There is also not a statistically significant difference between the offerings for highest rank of 10 and highest rank of 9.

[KillerKea]

@mvnla No spreadsheet or written record. Just my memory which of course can be wrong.

[Immortal… Larry]

Mi @mvnla2, here;s the offerings for the past 2 days…
2,4,(lc re-roll:9,11,7,6,7,4)2,7,3,9,3

Only problem is that my ranks have drastically changed, including one at lvl 10 after the lc experiment a few days ago. They’re now as follows:
Red: 8,8,9,9,9
Chuck: 9,9,9,10,8
Matilda: 9,9,9,9,8
Bomb: 9,8,8,9,9
Blues: 9,9,9,9,8

Using the re-roll option for LC really gave me a ton of mastery and I don’t have the time to farm snoutlings enough to keep going. However, I will keep on re-rolling the dojo every time I’ve gathered a few thousand snoutlings, at least as long as the golden cloud exploit keeps working.

[Immortal… Larry]

@mvnla2, It seems that spending LC’s increases the odds for snoutling offerings. What do your statistics say about that? Do they confirm this?

[MVNLA2]

@larry — I haven’t been spending LC to get a new set of offerings in the Dojo. In your list above, is everything in the parentheses the result of spending LC? Even if so, 6 is a pretty small number to make any conclusions from.
When did you get one class at rank 10? Was it somewhere in the list above, or prior to that?

[Immortal… Larry]

@mvnla2 It was at the end of the last overview I sent you in a private message. All the numbers above are AFTER reaching lvl 10.

A total of 3 runs with 75 LC ended with 45500, 44000 and 41000 mastery. All those numbers were from spending LC’s to get a new set after the snoutling offerings in the dojo were depleted.

The total offerings over 45 times re-stocking the dojo were 261. This results in the average of 5,8 offerings per restock.

I will add future runs to this as well since I’m planning a couple more after farming good amounts of snoutlings.

[Immortal… Larry]

@mvnla2, I had another run (over a few sessions today) of 75 LC now.

The full totals so far are as follows:
Total runs 60
Total offerings 353
Average offering 5,88
Total XP gained 176500
Total LC spent 300
Total Snoutlings spent 25416