Let's find out Golden Pig Chances at Rainbow Riot

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  • Hi all,

    I have recently started to wonder (after discovering the time zone cheat) what is the best way to use my coins. Is it the 20 coin buys or the 3 coin buys?

    For example, if probability of not getting any set item in 3 20-coin shots is larger than probability of not getting any set item is 20 3-coin shots, I think we can conclude that we should go for 3-coin shots.

    Can I ask everyone to help add on to the pool of data? Obviously even with the time zone cheat, I am not going to be able to run many rounds of test by myself. I just started a spreadsheet here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Etpl_vzG-j9YXaBKuRXTY5vBamBvF-fDMonpCUTgggU/edit?usp=sharing

    If there is information on this somewhere else, please let me know too. Thanks!

Viewing 14 replies - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • Replies
  • KerrAvon
    @kerravon

    @graugeist has collected and updates his GPM rolls in the golden pig machine thread. His (and other) data indicates that the chances of getting a set item during the rainbow riot are in the 11-12% range. Similar data is located elsewhere within that thread.

    3LC spins are much better than 20LC spins.
    The only reason for using a 20 LC spin is to fill up the rainbow bar so that you can get a guaranteed set item. Otherwise it is too risky and can be wasteful.

    If you get nothing after 10 spins during the rainbow riot, it is going to be a bad week. Many have spent lots of LCs at once and have reported bad results. Stop and save your LCs for the next week.

    GrauGeist
    @graugeist

    As of this week,

    Running total: 21 set items / 173 rainbow spins (avg 1/8.2).

    That is 519 LC spent on Golden Pig Rainbow Riot.

    For the same 60 LC, I get:
    – 20 little spins for 2.5 items during Rainbow Riot; or
    – 3 big spins.

    If those big 20 LC spins don’t give me a Set Item 5 times out of 6, I am clearly better with the little 3 LC spins.

    t_russell
    @tigerussell

    Rainbow Riot 3LC spin pays out right around 18% — Believe me I have recorded over 800 spins now in the last six weeks trying to get the phoenix egg. It’s the last set item I don’t have yet.

    KillerKea
    @killerkea

    GrauGeist summed it up well. It is better to do the 3 LC spins. The only advantage of the 20 LC spins is that it increases your rainbow 20%. It would take 10 3 LC spins or 30 LC to increase the rainbow 20%. It makes no sense at all to do a 20 LC spin when your rainbow is full or almost full since you are guarenteed a set item anyway.

    dr_ishmael
    @dr_ishmael

    @tigerussell Are you recording the number of stars on the non-set items you get? Or just the total counts of set items vs. rolls? If you are, I’d love to see your numbers. :D

    t_russell
    @tigerussell

    @dr_ishmael unfortunately I did not think about keeping more stats until I was 600 rolls in. I regret not having done so. My gut says they come up more or less evenly in distribution.

    cy.
    @chuyuet

    I think there are a lot of stats on 3gold coin spins but not much on 20gold coin spins. Not really sufficient for comparison, isnt it?

    GrauGeist
    @graugeist

    As above, unless those 20 LC spins are always giving a set item, the 3 LC spins are better.

    Lodz
    @lodz

    GAPM Rainbow Riot (Diamond league)

    0*: FTTTT 16%
    1*: FTTEEEETEFE 34%
    2*: EEFEFEEEFTT 34%
    3*: FETT 13%
    SI: T 3%
    32 spins

    F: 8 25%
    T: 12 38%
    E: 12 38%
    (F-flag, T-top, E-emblem, SI-set item)

    dr_ishmael
    @dr_ishmael

    @chuyuet @graugeist We can work this out to a certain point from what we know.

    • If you have 300 LC and spend them on Cheap Rolls, that gives you 100 rolls. Out of those 100, 2 of them will be on full Rainbow Bars, and on average you’ll get 5-6 items from the remaining 98 rolls (15-18 during Rainbow Riot), for a total of 7-8 set items (17-20 RR).
    • If you spent 300 LC on Expensive Rolls instead, that gives you 15 rolls. 3 of those will be on a full Rainbow Bar, which means you’d have to get 4-5 items from the remaining 12 rolls, i.e. the drop rate would have to be ~35-40% (RR: 14-17 items, which is impossible).

    I don’t think a 30% drop rate on Expensive Rolls is all that unrealistic. However, that would imply that the drop rate goes to 90% during Rainbow Riot, and that does seem a little unbelievable. [edit: rewrote bullet points to reflect how a roll on a full Rainbow Bar actually works]

    We really need someone who’s flush with LC to dump them all into expensive rolls… FOR SCIENCE!

    KillerKea
    @killerkea

    @dr_ishmael Someone already made a video of a large number of 20 LC spins and did that about 8 months ago.

    KillerKea
    @killerkea

    @dr_ishmael I just bumped a thread you will want to read. The video I was referring to is below.

    DarkHunterRPG posted the following after doing 50 3LC spins and 50 20LC spins in https://www.angrybirdsnest.com/forums/topic/angry-birds-epic-update-history-changelog/

    So i worked a little bit at it – its on now :)
    Hope you enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3Jnvr4pyrU

    dr_ishmael
    @dr_ishmael

    @killerkea Sweet! Stats from that video (ignoring full Rainbow Bars):

    
           3 LC   3 LC   20 LC  20 LC
    Stars  Count  Freq   Count  Freq
    -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
        0     17  34.7%
        1     21  42.9%
        2      7  14.3%     16  37.2%
        3      3   6.1%     22  51.2%
        S      1   2.0%      5  11.6%
    
    Total     50            43
    

    There are 2 possible interpretations of this data:

    1. DarkHunterRPG was unlucky on his cheap rolls, since 2% is significantly lower than the 5-6% indicated by all of the recent data.
    2. Rovio has increased the drop rate of set items at some point between August 2014 and now.

    Either way, we can’t really put much confidence in the 11.6% number. Still, I’m pretty sure we can conclude that the expensive roll drop rate is nowhere near high enough to keep it on par with cheap rolls.

    It’s too bad he never followed through on repeating that video after major updates, would have been really nice to have a similar number of data points as I have for both RR and non-RR cheap rolls.

    Also interesting – expensive rolls are guaranteed to give at least a 2* item. Not like a whole lot of people care about that, though.

    GrauGeist
    @graugeist

    Exactly. If it’s not a Set Item, it’s trash.

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